SmoothJB

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Beginning Consolidation

Short
OANDA:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
I wrote last Tuesday that a long trade generally did not look like a good idea, and that the resistance level at 0.7430 did look quite strong, so it might provide a short trade – I was prepared to go short if we get a firm reversal off that level, which we did.

The picture now shows the former large swings up and down in this currency pair beginning to narrow, with the first signs of a consolidation pattern emerging between 0.7321 and 0.7390. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its most recent monthly meeting a few hours ago, with the key takeaway being that the RBA does not expect to raise its interest rate in 2022. This as expected has had a small dovish effect on the Aussie, but nothing really of any technical significance above a scalping kind of time frame.

If I am correct about this consolidative atmosphere, the best opportunities ahead in this currency pair will be likely to be either a long trade from a bounce at 0.7321 or a short trade from 0.7390 again. I prefer a short trade as the US Dollar is in a long-term bullish trend , meaning a short trade should be likely to have a higher chance of producing a better result.

Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7390 or 0.7430.

Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Idea
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7321 or 0.7267.

Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.