AUD / USD - Resistance holding - SHORT

OANDA:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
The long-term trend weekly trend is bullish , but we've also fallen out of the Bull channel after descending from the North of the channel starting in January 2018, we're now range bound between 0.745 (stops above here) and 0.73 (target). The Aussie and kiwi are getting battered whenever China suffers and I don't see it stopping any time soon/

Let's see how this plays out.... trade is acting @0.744
Comment: Here is the long-term picture...

Comment: Big moves on Crude Oil after the inventory numbers came out 6 million short, this normally sends oil higher, and therefore some strength behind the US $, so this will drive this pair lower.

Comment: If we break the second trend line, we're in for a lovely move to the downside
Comment: The US$ is rocketing after the Crude numbers, if we break that trend line, buyers will start exiting and taking their profits and it'll drop quicker.

Trade closed manually: Failed to break the trend line, taking profits and closed the trade. Crude will have a major impact on many pairs now.

Comment: This is why it's important to trade what you see on the charts and other associated instruments. we got 38 pips of profit out of the trade before it shot the other way and we got 40 pips on the buy. No point staying in now at the rising trend line, that needs to break first.
Trade active: I'm in early LONG on this trade @0.7375 although there has been no signal as yet and we've broken a 15m trend line, we have bounced off the bottom @0.738, they key area to break North is @0.74 we'll likely see more sellers come back in, so this is a contrarian move.

Comment: Sold this pair again yesterday and caught a lovely move down on the daily

Comment: Blue dotted line is the bounce area, lots of support there, be nice to break that today and start to progress down to the long term support trend line (Purple)

Comment: The Aussie has been slow to fall on this pair, but I think we'll get there by Friday afternoon

Comment: We have non-farm payroll today and some reasonable metrics that will impact the markets across the board, while there is some Aussie strength this morning, there was still weakness on the Yuan and China, so that will impact the Pacific currencies, look at the US$ strength in comparrison. Another interesting trade, GBP / Aussie - SELL.

So an interesting first Friday of the month, currently I have an incredible portfolio of very profitable trades right now, check out my ideas, June and July was my biggest periods ever, but least amount of trades.

It's taken a while for this pair to break lower, wonder if it will break out of the range, a positive NFP will do that and send it lower. Be very aware of your entries this morning, in early, out early today, unless you have some excellent positions that can handle being held over the weekend, I certainly do, I've held some trades for over a month.

The weekly chart shows the pair right on the edge of the long term bull channel, time to fall out of it.

Comment: I closed this trade a while ago, I did move as forecast, but I didn't catch it. Again like many Bull pairs, we're at the bottom of their channels and are ready to break through.

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