EverythingForex

ANALYSIS: AUDUSD: Is It Near A Bottom? Or Heading Down More?

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
1446 7 25
The last time I posted something on this pair, I was touting the there was a MASSIVE MOVE in this pair coming. Now I did manage to capture over +500 pips on the move up from when I posted that more than 2 months ago (see ) as prices moved sharply up after I posted that. But was that the "MASSIVE MOVE" I was referring to? Well, it wasn't but I'll take the +500 pips. Now after prices reached it's pinnacle from that move up, it's done nothing but move sideways and recently SHARPLY down. Not what I was expecting to be sure. So what to make of this recent move down that has pretty much recaptured almost all of that move up? Here's what I think:

WAVE COUNT
To better understand the wave count that you are seeing in the chart above, take a look at this DAILY chart below:
snapshot
.

In this DAILY chart , what i am seeing is that there is a WXY pattern forming with the W and X waves already done and now the Y pattern is forming in a ABC Zigzag pattern. Within this ABC Zigzag, this recent surprisingly strong move down was most likely a wave c of the (b) of the ABC. Wave c's are the corrective equivalent of wave 3's and the strength of this wave c is reminiscent of a wave 3. It is a 5-wave wave c with it's wave (v) of c possibly now coming to an end as shown in the 4HR Chart above.

PATTERNS
There are 2 COMPLETED Patterns here that prices are now in the PRZ of. There is a COMPLETED Gartley and a COMPLETED Bat. Both patterns are signaling that prices should be turning and heading back up. I have also placed a POSSIBLE Cypher pattern on the chart BUT prices WILL need to head down more in order for this POSSIBLE Cypher to become a POTENTIAL Cypher and come into play. Prices can go as low as 0.68834 and this cypher will still be valid. But prices DO have to get to 0,69184 to become valid. That level contains a strong fib level including the golden ration fib extension.

Now, if this is indeed going to be a wave (c) of that ABC up, then it has a LONG WAY to go! There are 2 more patterns that are for the LONG TERM. A Potential Crab and a POTENTIAL BAT. But that is for considering later.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR

It is trying to establish a low right now. So look for it to head back down again and re-challenge the recent low at0.69269. If it does retest it and that low does hold, then look for a BUY. It that low does not hold and prices break it, then look for another small push down probably into the 0.60200 - 0.69100 region before looking for another BUY setup. Should prices break below the CRITICAL Major SR Structure at 0.69070, then likely it will head to 0.69000.

MY TRADE PLAN

I am looking for a good setup to go LONG on this pair. If this is to be the wave (c) of the ABC, then this is the MASSIVE MOVE UP that I had been touting since 2 months ago! And if it is, I am looking at possibly +1000's of pips possible in this move.
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Rebounds

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*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I can know my post was helpful to you. As always, any CONSTRUCTIVE comments are welcome whether AGREE or DISAGREE.
+1 Reply
pathaniasourabh
10 months ago
Buying zone & SL ???????
+1 Reply
EverythingForex PRO pathaniasourabh
10 months ago
I'm not giving a trade call here. I'm providing you some analysis.
Reply
SkyrEk
10 months ago
Have a good year ahead my friend! Best wishes and thank you as always!
Reply
EverythingForex PRO SkyrEk
10 months ago
You also, SkyEk. Thank you for your continued support!
+1 Reply
Thanks for great analysis.
Reply
peterB
10 months ago
Thanks for your chart dollar index is up indicating a sell for AU to your target 6915 then big move up would be great if it did get 1000 of pips!! are you going to continue posting EU/GB as before thanks anyway good charts as always
Reply
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