FX:AUDUSD Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
All of last week I was short the AUD/USD and this netted some decent pips. NFP data did stop me out but my tight trailing stop (4H chart) ensured most of last week's move was bagged. The question is whether the downside bias will continue. I think it will and have entered short as we are testing the kumo from beneath on the . I expect price to try and retest this level (also represented by the top of the Kumo on the 1 hour chart) and the Kijun (red line ofn the 4hour chart) before continuing to the downside. Some fairly big economic data concerning Australia later in the week mind so watch out for an increase in volatility
I think a retracement is starting at the moment. The pair has been under bullish divergence, MACD on the 1 h and stochs(14,3,3) on the 4 hour. Also has formed some king of double bottom. Is sitting above untested highs from 22 & 27 of May (4 hour graph). Finally it has cleared 0,9312 which was prior lower high on the 1 hour graph. I recomment caution for shorts
I agree there is some retracement going on but I guess it all depends on time frames, trading style etc and how you read the charts. I don't disagree what anything you have said, but I only look at things from an Ichimoku perspective and on the Daily and Weekly Time frames I see only bearish tendancies. I went short last week at 0.9392 based on a specific set-up I follow and that ran down nicely 100+ pips. Price got far from its equilibrium and so I expect a retracement/pull-back and then another leg-down based on longer-term support/resistance offered by the Kumo. Price is always changing and it could develop into a more bullish picture if certain conditions are met but for now I'm sticking with a short bias on the daily/4 hour time frame I trade until I see a change. Of course the interest rate news could throw everything out later this week. All part of the fun!