ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Long

Pending Long AUD/USD in 0.900X/0.898X Region

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
165 35 5
Despite bad China data on Saturday, it actually comes as an opportune moment because it gives AUD/USD             a chance to retrace a bit on this bull move. I've drawn an inverted head and shoulder pattern to indicate a possible long term directional change.

Wait for price to retrace to the 50% fib level (0.900X) or 61.8% fib level + trend line test (0.898X) for a possible long entry.
Consider exiting if price manages to close below the trend line.
Target: Low 0.91XX region (previous swing high)

Update: Considering price did not test the trend line yet, I'd say this trade still has a shot to fill there. However, price looks to have bounced off of the 50% fib level so far and I've already filled 30% of my long position at 0.9015. Anyone else get a position?
Update: Considering price did not test the trend line yet, I'd say this trade still has a shot to fill there. However, price looks to have bounced off of the 50% fib level so far and I've already filled 30% of my long position at 0.9015. Anyone else get a position?
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Update: Price is moving down towards the trend line now but since some time has passed since I posted the original analysis, the place where the trend line will be tested is different. So beware of that, it may be coming in at 0.897X now or maybe even 0.895X.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
EDIT: I don't know why but trading view charts look different compared to my charts. On my chart, price is already at the trend line but on trading view, it's not.. which is why I made the comment of price may bounce lower.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Price just hit the trend line and I just filled half my position at 0.8980, I've been trading with my charts for nearly 3 years now so I'll choose to trust mine over trading view's...
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Filled some more at 0.8960, my average price is now 0.8980
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Just woke up and surprised to see price dropped a bit since last night. When I can't watch PA (e.g., while I sleep), I set a SL of 100 pips. I can afford to do this since I use fairly low leverage.

Why 100 pips?
- It's considered a wide stop by most traders, so it'll prevent being stopped out from the small spikes.
- At the same time however, it's wide enough but also necessary to prevent catastrophic losses from a major move.

Had I been awake, I may have considered adding some more at 0.8930 but it looks like I may have missed that opportunity now.
(DO NOT ADD MORE IF YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO DO SO, I'M WELL BELOW MY ACCOUNT EXPOSURE LIMITS)
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Given my position in this pair (full position), GBP/USD (full position) and USD/JPY (30%). I'm only at 23% of my account exposure limit, so I have plenty of margin to play with.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Added 50% more at 0.89325 (0.8930 + spread), now I have 150% (more than what I normally risk per position but I have extra margin as I mentioned above), my average price is now 0.8965.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Some of you may not agree with this "adding to losses" but I'm not really adding to losses, I'm just allocating margin to increase my position size. Considering I usually only 10% per position, with my 3 live trades, I can go up to 333% for each position if I see fit.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
That's fine, but you can add to your loser for a limited time only - until you reach your predefined 100% 1R risk level.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
True, my comment was mainly focusing on risk exposure rather than absolute risk.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Anyway, the aussie is probably going up now. :-)
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Indeed,
AUDUSD Long from Lower Trend Line (0.892X/3X)
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Not a sin to enter long now...
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Yea, I may just load another 50% to bring my position up to the 200% mark on AUD/USD, which still only puts me at 33% of total account exposure...
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Update: It didn't pullback, so I didn't get to add another 50%, just going to hold my existing position, avg price of 0.8965, which at the current price is up 6 pips right now.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Given we have AUD employment data coming out soon, I've decide to scale out of my higher longs (30% at 0.9015, 20% at 0.8980, 50% at 0.8960), average price of these entries is 0.8980. So I just banked 12 pips on them, I'm now only holding 50% position (recall: I loaded 150% on AUDUSD) from 0.89325. So I'll let this one run or get stopped out for BE.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I took profit at 0.90675 (where the gap is on my charts), so that's +135 pips for me on half a position.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Very nice. I closed my position at 0.9035.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
How do you manage to post a chart in comment with a feature of a possible refresh? Mine are always static: I click on the camera button, copy the url and paste it in comment in 'insert chart' box. But they are always static; yours are refreshable...
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Are your charts published ideas? All of my charts that I post via comments are 'published ideas' but not public (it's a pro feature).
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
I'd imagine simply sharing a chart that's not a 'published idea' won't refresh because what's the point of proving a chart if it's not published?
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
OK. If you allow me, Brian. I will post here a relevant published idea and we'll see, if it works that way.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Go for it :)
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Sorry, it's a different pair. But, considering a possible correlation between the two. I think they will both go up (let's see, if this chart is refreshable):
NZDUSD Still long
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
It works :)
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Thank you, Brian. Now I understand it, how it works. :-)
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
You've probably got a different data provider. Tradingview is FXCM, is yours FXCM as well?
I've noticed it too. I find it a good, complementary security measure, as the real fx market is probably somewhere between all of the brokers. This way you don't get hung up on one broker, but know that what you see is an approximation (or some average print) and the 'true' price level may actually be a little bit higher or lower.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
I trade on Oanda and FxPro
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I trade with Oanda too. However, I was considering opening an account also with FxPro. Do you think it is a good idea?
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
I haven't had a problem with them yet, been with them since January 2012. I try to withdraw my profits at least twice a month and so far, no problems at all.

I'm mainly only with them to trade super high leverage (500:1) on experimental small accounts though. So unless you need access to super high leverage, Oanda should suffice with their 50:1 leverage.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
FxPro has a 'vault' feature, so you withdraw money out of your trading account and into the vault to store. The vault isn't affected by margin calls on your trading account. So what I do is transfer my monthly profits out of my trading account and into the vault then withdraw from the vault twice a month. I do this in case I have to 'top up' my trading account for whatever reason, half way through the month.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
As for the vault feature, in Oanda you can open another account and treat it as a vault. Actually I've got an account in almost every ccy and trade on the one, whose ccy is currently the strongest. This way I also preserve my capital from depreciation. Currently I'm trading on the CHF account, but earlier this year I was in the GBP account.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I don't need any higher leverage. 50:1 is enough for me. I decided to look for another broker after the Feb-27 Oanda internet outage. Did you experience that too?
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Yea, they were down for 3 hours but luckily, I didn't have any open positions with them at the time. I live near their HQ in Toronto by the way, but I didn't experience internet outage so it must've been the business lines that went down...
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