ICmarkets
Long

Interesting price action forming on the Aussie...

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
142 0 2
During the course of yesterday’s sessions the AUD fell sharply going into the early hours of European trade. This move took out bids at the 4hr range low 0.7322, and aggressively connected just above a 4hr Quasimodo support barrier at 0.7282. The buyers, as you can see were quick to react here, pushing the Aussie over 60 pips higher back up into the current 4hr range (0.7388/0.7322) into the close 0.7335.

With the weekly timeframe now hugging the top-side of a long-term weekly demand at 0.6951-0.7326, and daily action showing price trading mid-range between 0.7418 and 0.7227, where do we see this market heading today? Well, speaking purely from a technician’s point of view, we feel price may head north before closing out the week. Here’s why:

1. Price is currently reacting from the aforementioned long-term weekly demand zone.
2. Yesterday’s deep fakeout below the 4hr range took a lot of money to achieve, which, as far as we’re aware, only pro-money can afford to do. With this, there were likely unfilled bids left at the lower limit 0.7322 when price broke through offers to re-enter the 4hr consolidation. Therefore, as per the black arrows, price may drop lower to connect with these unfilled orders and rally higher.
3. Above current price marked with red arrows is what we recognize as consumed supply. Check out the very obvious supply consumption wicks seen at 0.7362/0.7374/0.7388/0.7396/0.7408.

Nevertheless, seeing as this pair is still in one humongous downtrend at the moment, we’d highly recommend waiting for the lower timeframes to prove there is buying strength at 0.7322 before committing capital. Should we manage to spot a lower timeframe buy entry here today, targets for this trade will be the underside of the 4hr down trendline (0.7495), followed closely by 0.7418/0.7436 – a clear sell zone!

Levels to watch/ live orders:

• Buys: 0.7322 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).
• Sells: 0.7418/0.7436 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one finds confirmation within this area)
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