AUD/USD responds positively to Australian labour data
Despite the relatively uneventful trading since Tuesday, the Aussie plunged down to the 0.7970 mark mid-Thursday. This strong bearish momentum proved to be no opponent to the 200-hour SMA, as it was dashed through without any hindrance.
Meanwhile, better-than-expected Australian labour data early on Thursday resulted in a surge of 32 pips which was later halted at the 200-hour SMA. Being reinforced by the 55-hour moving average, this mark might be an unbreakable resistance in this session; thus, providing another upside confirmation of a descending channel.
In case this level is breached, the Aussie’s appreciation might not be long-lived, as the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP are located nearby.
Meanwhile, better-than-expected Australian labour data early on Thursday resulted in a surge of 32 pips which was later halted at the 200-hour SMA. Being reinforced by the 55-hour moving average, this mark might be an unbreakable resistance in this session; thus, providing another upside confirmation of a descending channel.
In case this level is breached, the Aussie’s appreciation might not be long-lived, as the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP are located nearby.
Trade closed: target reached:
Following a breakout of the mediate-term descending channel, the Aussie failed to accelerate against the US Dollar, thus resulting in a narrow movement sideways.
The upward momentum was limited by the weekly PP near the 0.8040 mark, while the downside had been supported by the 55-hour SMA since mid-Friday. The former, however, was recently breached, thus reaching the lower boundary of a newly-drawn channel up. It is not yet clear if the given formation continues to confine the pair. Taking into account worsening technical indicators, traders might see a fall down to the 0.7969 mark.
On the other hand, the greatest resistance is set by the 200-hour SMA near the 0.8020 mark which needs to be surpassed in order to confirm a possible up-trend. Up to now, the rate has failed to remain above this level.
Following a breakout of the mediate-term descending channel, the Aussie failed to accelerate against the US Dollar, thus resulting in a narrow movement sideways.
The upward momentum was limited by the weekly PP near the 0.8040 mark, while the downside had been supported by the 55-hour SMA since mid-Friday. The former, however, was recently breached, thus reaching the lower boundary of a newly-drawn channel up. It is not yet clear if the given formation continues to confine the pair. Taking into account worsening technical indicators, traders might see a fall down to the 0.7969 mark.
On the other hand, the greatest resistance is set by the 200-hour SMA near the 0.8020 mark which needs to be surpassed in order to confirm a possible up-trend. Up to now, the rate has failed to remain above this level.
Comment:
After crossing the 200-, 100– and 55-hour SMAs on Monday, it was no surprise when the Aussie breached the lower boundary of the ascending channel. The rate lingered slightly near this line; however, the hourly plunge which started at 1400GMT provided the necessary downside momentum to fall until the weekly S2 at 0.7954 was reached.
Subsequently, the Australian Dollar has recovered most intraday losses and even overcome the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. Taking into account these latest directional developments, a new channel down was drawn.
This formation demonstrates that the rate is approaching its upper boundary, reinforced by the 200-hour SMA circa 0.8020. It is expected that the rate might reach this mark and, subsequently, experience a correction southwards.
After crossing the 200-, 100– and 55-hour SMAs on Monday, it was no surprise when the Aussie breached the lower boundary of the ascending channel. The rate lingered slightly near this line; however, the hourly plunge which started at 1400GMT provided the necessary downside momentum to fall until the weekly S2 at 0.7954 was reached.
Subsequently, the Australian Dollar has recovered most intraday losses and even overcome the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. Taking into account these latest directional developments, a new channel down was drawn.
This formation demonstrates that the rate is approaching its upper boundary, reinforced by the 200-hour SMA circa 0.8020. It is expected that the rate might reach this mark and, subsequently, experience a correction southwards.
Comment:
The Aussie has appreciated significantly against the US Dollar since Monday when the rate bounced off the weekly S1. The rate was stranded between the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs during the second half of Tuesday. It did, however, push through the latter and shot up to the 0.8060 area where the weekly and monthly R1s and the 23.6% Fibo are located.
Given that the Aussie is trading in the overbought territory, it is likely that the Antipodean currency fails to surpass this resistance cluster.
In addition, from theoretical point of view, the rate should retrace back to the upper channel boundary circa 0.8020. This level is likewise supported by the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP.
The Aussie has appreciated significantly against the US Dollar since Monday when the rate bounced off the weekly S1. The rate was stranded between the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs during the second half of Tuesday. It did, however, push through the latter and shot up to the 0.8060 area where the weekly and monthly R1s and the 23.6% Fibo are located.
Given that the Aussie is trading in the overbought territory, it is likely that the Antipodean currency fails to surpass this resistance cluster.
In addition, from theoretical point of view, the rate should retrace back to the upper channel boundary circa 0.8020. This level is likewise supported by the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP.
Comment:
Contrary to expectations, the Aussie managed to push through a significant resistance cluster formed by the weekly and monthly R1s and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement up to the 0.8080 mark. Subsequently, FOMC’s comments about a possible rate hike by the end of 2017 sparked a buying spree of the US Dollar, thus closing the hour with a 71-pip plunge.
This decline halted right at the 200-hour SMA and the upper channel boundary, but the given area, likewise reinforced by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, failed to support the rate. In general, the 17-hour plunge has sent technical indicators to historic lows. Thus, the rate should try to recover some losses.
The scope of this recovery is yet unknown, but it is possible that the Aussie reaches the aforementioned SMAs, the weekly PP and the 38.2% Fibo circa 0.8010.
Contrary to expectations, the Aussie managed to push through a significant resistance cluster formed by the weekly and monthly R1s and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement up to the 0.8080 mark. Subsequently, FOMC’s comments about a possible rate hike by the end of 2017 sparked a buying spree of the US Dollar, thus closing the hour with a 71-pip plunge.
This decline halted right at the 200-hour SMA and the upper channel boundary, but the given area, likewise reinforced by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, failed to support the rate. In general, the 17-hour plunge has sent technical indicators to historic lows. Thus, the rate should try to recover some losses.
The scope of this recovery is yet unknown, but it is possible that the Aussie reaches the aforementioned SMAs, the weekly PP and the 38.2% Fibo circa 0.8010.
Comment:
The previously-drawn narrow channel of AUD/USD was altered in order to include the daily peaks reached on September 8 and 20. Thus, this new pattern might explain why the rate halted unexpectedly in the area between the monthly PP and the weekly S2, as it confirmed the bottom channel boundary which has already provided support and resistance for the Aussie.
As apparent on the chart, the rate is currently moving towards a significant support cluster set by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs circa 0.7990. It is likely that the Australian Dollar hinders near this area and consequently trades sideways. Given the strength of this cluster, the rate should fail to surpass it on the first attempt, thus remaining between this mark and the monthly PP at 0.7933 by mid-Monday.
The previously-drawn narrow channel of AUD/USD was altered in order to include the daily peaks reached on September 8 and 20. Thus, this new pattern might explain why the rate halted unexpectedly in the area between the monthly PP and the weekly S2, as it confirmed the bottom channel boundary which has already provided support and resistance for the Aussie.
As apparent on the chart, the rate is currently moving towards a significant support cluster set by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs circa 0.7990. It is likely that the Australian Dollar hinders near this area and consequently trades sideways. Given the strength of this cluster, the rate should fail to surpass it on the first attempt, thus remaining between this mark and the monthly PP at 0.7933 by mid-Monday.
Comment:
The strong upward momentum that dominated the Aussie on Friday morning was disrupted by the 55-hour SMA near the 0.7980 mark. Subsequently, this line became a driving force for the rate, as the Australian Dollar continued to trade along it until mid-Monday.
At the time, the pair was positioned between the 55-hour SMA and a resistance cluster formed by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP near 0.7985. From theoretical point of view, traders should see the rate picking up speed and surging towards the upper channel line. However, the aforementioned resistance could provide hindrance for several hours.
It is likely that the rate is remains in the 0.7950/0.8000 range. In case of a fall, the Aussie could edge down to the monthly PP near 0.7932.
The strong upward momentum that dominated the Aussie on Friday morning was disrupted by the 55-hour SMA near the 0.7980 mark. Subsequently, this line became a driving force for the rate, as the Australian Dollar continued to trade along it until mid-Monday.
At the time, the pair was positioned between the 55-hour SMA and a resistance cluster formed by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP near 0.7985. From theoretical point of view, traders should see the rate picking up speed and surging towards the upper channel line. However, the aforementioned resistance could provide hindrance for several hours.
It is likely that the rate is remains in the 0.7950/0.8000 range. In case of a fall, the Aussie could edge down to the monthly PP near 0.7932.
Comment:
As apparent on the chart, the 55-hour SMA was guiding the Aussie for the whole trading session on Monday, thus leaving the rate slightly above the monthly PP and the 61.8% Fibo late in the evening.
The rate failed to surpass the 55-hour SMA once again this morning and eventually plunged down to the weekly S1 at 0.7875. As a result, the Australian Dollar breached the bottom channel boundary near 0.7900. The rate might reverse near the weekly S1 or slightly lower and try to re-test the monthly PP or the 55-hour SMA.
In case no strong market shakers occur today, the rate could remain in the 0.7875/0.7934 range by mid-Wednesday. However, the US is set to release the CB Consumer Confidence at 1400GMT, as well as the Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak later today at 1645GMT.
As apparent on the chart, the 55-hour SMA was guiding the Aussie for the whole trading session on Monday, thus leaving the rate slightly above the monthly PP and the 61.8% Fibo late in the evening.
The rate failed to surpass the 55-hour SMA once again this morning and eventually plunged down to the weekly S1 at 0.7875. As a result, the Australian Dollar breached the bottom channel boundary near 0.7900. The rate might reverse near the weekly S1 or slightly lower and try to re-test the monthly PP or the 55-hour SMA.
In case no strong market shakers occur today, the rate could remain in the 0.7875/0.7934 range by mid-Wednesday. However, the US is set to release the CB Consumer Confidence at 1400GMT, as well as the Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak later today at 1645GMT.
Despite being driven by downside risks mid-Thursday, the Aussie managed to reverse its position at the 0.7970 mark. As expected, the subsequent move up was limited by the 200-hour SMA circa 0.8021.
A breakout of the descending channel indicates that the Aussie might accelerate against the US Dollar and therefore surpass the 200-hour SMA. However, it is expected that this momentum northwards might be limited by the weekly PP or the monthly S2 at 0.8042 and 0.8058, respectively.
This assumption is made from the fact that the rate has not left the 0.8040/0.7970 range for the last four trading sessions. Meanwhile, the 55-hour SMA at 0.80 or the 0.7970 should support the rate in case a fall occurs.