Last week I too a long from the bottom of the channel to the target in the red box. It is in that red box that I went short. Now, the program is fully turned on.
I was also looking at the COT report and analyzing it. While it may or may not be an exact market extreme, 71%- 72% of large speculators are now long. I think it is too many.
There is some hidden divergence also.
Tomorrow's Aussie GDP and Trade balance.... look very terrible now. Aussie is still good fundamentally. We dipped to recession territory, and this does not look good lining up against the dollar. I look to today's interest rate decision in the Australian central bank for guidance. My stops may be hit, but at least I will know what to do next. Everything goes as planned, then money will be rolling in.