Last week I too a long from the bottom of the channel to the target in the red box. It is in that red box that I went short. Now, the program is fully turned on.
I was also looking at the COT report and analyzing it. While it may or may not be an exact market extreme, 71%- 72% of large speculators are now long. I think it is too many.
There is some hidden divergence also.
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Tomorrow's Aussie GDP and Trade balance.... look very terrible now. Aussie is still good fundamentally. We dipped to recession territory, and this does not look good lining up against the dollar. I look to today's interest rate decision in the Australian central bank for guidance. My stops may be hit, but at least I will know what to do next. Everything goes as planned, then money will be rolling in.