AUDUSD - Weekly outlook - thesis and counter thesis

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Last weeks "Weekly outlook"
( EURJPY long +300)
( AUDUSD short +60)

On friday we touched the bottom of the resistans box and then we got a bounce,
so I think we should look to sell any rallies below 1.0480.

The 50SMA have crossed below 100SMA and 200SMA which indicate bearish basis.
Below 1.0340 should give bears confidence

If we break 1.0500 look for 1.0550 and 1.0580 to act as resistans.
Buying below 1.0500 is very risky IMHO.

Trading ideas:
Short 1.0380-1.0420 TP1 1.0280 TP2 1.0200 TP3 1.0100 SL1 .0500 (move SL to break even at 1.0340)
Long 1.0500-1.0520 TP1 1.0550 TP2 1.0600 TP3 1.0750 SL1 .0470 (move SL to break even at 1.0550)

On monday we have AUD NAB Business Confidence and Chinese data.

On wednesday we have AUD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate,
and on thursday and friday we have a lot of US reports coming out.


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