- TG-Lo = 0.80821 - 22 DEC 2014 = Predictive/Forecasting Model
TECHNICAL SUPPORT:
- Target comes in alignment with a historical R/S level in WEEKLY chart - Fibonacci-paced retracement at 0.382 provides close-approximation with overhead structure at 0.86591
Note that in recent chart, a similar bullish reversal expectation has developed. A rallying in this AUD would maintain the historical positive correlation that exists with XAU and other gold-related ETFs - See XAU and JNUG charts in the links.
GEOMETRIC PATTERN:
Note also that the AUDUSD chart (see link) has come to rest at a triple-bottom completion, following two parabolic pathway, one small followed by a larger, a pattern defined as a Bullish Kiss Of Death.
OVERALL: AUDUSD favors a rallying at this level, based on structural significance (R/S level attainment best seen in a weekly chart), as well as corroborating technical features in positively-correlated charts, where rallying is also pending.
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
Relevance of the target is not the proximity of the forecast from the predicted level. Rather, relevance relates to target's nominal nature, which is to cause price to reverse instead of retracing. Based on this predictive/forecasting model, the reversal considers any price turn-around effecting a greater than 0.618-Fibonacci reversal, whereas a mere reversal keeps price reacting in the typical order of 0.382 to 0.618.
The target here is nominal, hence the forecast of a reversal.
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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04 FEB 2015 - Update:
From Twitter/Linked-In:
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AUDUSD - Floor opens to bearish target @ 0.7294; Would complete WW's Pt-5'':
As indicated before, the 4-hour chart is offering a few technical reasons to justify a probable rallying from the current level. However, the WEEKLY timeframe has to be kept in sight with the current model, especially at times of institutional decision, such as central bank rate decision (rate was brought down from 2.50% to 2.25% on 03 FEB 2015, pressuring AUD downward, as it should). However, the predictive model applied to both H4 and WEEKLY charts remains poised for a rally, despite the price reaction to CB action.
For this reason, I would recommend to keep one technical eye at the WEEKLY level, and the other at the H4 for now.
David
kmk.msp
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Hi David,
You have said in AUDUSD that Floor opens to bearish target @ 0.7294; Would complete WW's Pt-5 whereas for NZDUSD you have written that it eyes 0.78473 as next bullish target.
It means there will be more bearish pressure on AUDNZD and it may probably go towards parity or even low probably.
kmk.msp
zdisco
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Hi David, what are your thoughts regarding this pair for the week? I opened a long trade 0.78. Was hoping to get your view. This is my second post! And am a total novice. So apologies in advance!
4xForecaster
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23 JAN 2015 - Update:
From Twitter:
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AUDUSD hit primary target 0.78866 dead-on; Eyes retracement as forecast above Pt-4:
Look for higher timeframe for reference points. Here, a WW remains very much at work, preparing to propel price to the forecast bullish levels - See WEEKLY chart posted earlier:
Remember that this is a L/T chart involving a M/T trade effected at the H4 level - Not one to play around if your account relies on high-leverage and/or low risk tolerance - As usual, this and other trades are for educational purposes. Do the due.
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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22 JAN 2015 - Trade Note:
Entered LONG @ 0.80265
Recommended SL < 1.414-Fib relative to recent structure.
Targets per chart.
Time = M/T
David
4xForecaster
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15 JAN 2015 - Update:
From Twitter:
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AUDUSD holds bullish tack as forecast; #fibonacci-based target still likely:
From Twitter:
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AUDUSD broke 0.82144; Heralds bullish intent; Expect interim 50% retrace before rallying:
@TradingView AUD USD
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David Alcindor