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AUDUSD: Dueling Cyphers and All That Jazz! Top-down analysis....

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
I'll have to admit that this pair had me scratching my head for a while. Until I finally sat down and did a thorough top-down analysis on it to see what the big picture was. But first, since my headline is what probably caught your attention and is the reason why you are checking out my chart, I'll explain about that first.

Currently, I have spotted 2 cypher patterns with the bullish cypher already complete. I must explain something about this cypher first. You might notice that the prices actually EXCEEDS the X point of this cypher . You might say that it invalidates the cypher pattern . And you would not be wrong! BUT....the price bar in question (the C point of the bearish cypher ) DID NOT CLOSE below the X point and in fact, made a nice long-legged doji followed by an engulfing candle. So although the opening gap did violate the X point of this cypher , the subsequent price action gave an immediate re-entry opportunity and IMO, did not invalidate the pattern.

There is a POTENTIAL BEARISH cypher pattern that will complete if prices reach that far...which I think eventually it will. Here's why I think it will.....where is this pair headed and what opportunities exist to make some good pips? Let's do some top-down in-depth analysis to see....you might be surprised! First, let's do some wave analysis. Yeah, I know. Elliott waves are very subjective and depends on who's looking at what. But IMO, it's a very useful tool to have in your trading box. I'm not claiming to be an expert at it but the way I use it, my wave counts don't need to be spot-on accurate. You must know where you've been and where you are now and how you got there in order to know where you are going, right? In my analysis, we are currently in the ending of the B wave of an ABC consolidation and are waiting for the C leg to begin. Which I think it has just started. So how'd we get there? Without using too much Elliott-speak, in the following chart, by my count, overall we are (from top-down):

1. still in the wave III             of a five-wave impulse wave (green colored) down.
2. Within this wave III             , we are currently in the wave 4 (orange-brown color wave) of 5.
3. Within the wave 4, we are currently finishing wave B of a possible ABC zig-zag correction.
snapshot

Zooming in to the DAILY chart and still looking from a BIG picture perspective, what we are looking at here is the just finished wave 3 (blue wave) and the current wave 4 (black wave) of the bigger wave III             . Here, I have spotted 2 patterns waiting to complete: a bearish BAT and a bearish BUTTERFLY . Both of these patterns point to the possible ending of the wave 4 correction. You may see the Butterfly complete and then prices turn down from there TEMPORARILY and then turn back up to complete the bearish BAT . Or the scenario I favor is that the bearish Butterfly completion signals the end of wave 4 and the beginning of wave 5 down to complete wave III             of the larger wave count. I favor the Butterfly because it ends at the .382 retracement of the just completed wave 3.
snapshot

CONCLUSION: Prices are headed higher for the short-term to hit the profit targets for the bull cypher that just completed. Prices could then continue to head north towards the completion of the bear cypher . At which point, prices will retreat back down to hit at least the first profit target for the bear cypher (not shown). After that, prices will turn back up and head much higher into the top of the current channel and eventually past it breaking much higher to complete the larger Butterfly pattern on the DAILY chart before finally finishing wave 4 and reversing down from there.
Plan YOUR trade. Trade YOUR plan. If you like my analysis, PLEASE take a second to hit the LIKE button so I know it's useful to you. Whether you agree or disagree, all comments are welcome! Who knows? Maybe you will point out something I missed and help me out!


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Prices have now hit Target 1 of the bullish cypher. You can take 50% of your trade lot off and book 79 pips profit. Move your stops to break even and hold the other 50% for target 2 and beyond. From here, there is good possibility for a retrace back down before possibly heading back up.
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