J_Graystone
Short

AUDUSD Trend Continuation Trade

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
Analysing the Bearish Trend on this pair, we can see that after the new structure low, we got a 382 retracement right at previous structure before continuing the downward movement down into the 1.618 extension before consolidating again.

If we are looking to get short and jump on the trend, the question we need to ask is where can we get involved?

So we build a case for entry.

First of all, looking left we can identify previous support which "should" now act as resistance.

Next we can draw in a Fibonacci retracement tool from the previous outside return to the new structure low and you can see we get a 382 retracement which ties in nicely with the previous harmonic move.

Next we can tae a Fibonacci retracement from the Starting Point to the most recent low and you see we get a 0.618 retracement right in the same level.

This identifies the pink area as nice probable entry zone or kill zone to get involve in shorting this pair.

Some high impact news out on the AUD tonight which may see the pair push up out of this consolidation. If we can push up into this zone we can then look to get involved.

Aggressive traders may enter at the 382 whilst more conservative traders may look for further filters strengthening their case for entry such as an AB=CD harmonic move, advanced pattern completion or even a double top on a lower time frame.

I will be keeping an eye on this pair over the next few days.

Good luck in the markets.


Pip-thief
a year ago
Sounds like Jason Stapleton
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Pip-thief
a year ago
Wasn't convinced by this idea, I see your logic but the chances of that playing out were less than 10%. Reason being is that the last leg of your harmonic which would have pushed price into your 'kill zone' ! ... was far too much of a rise to ask for given the momentum behind the downtrend and as we can see the market has slowly fallen down again since publication. I wouldn't be looking at shorting the AU anyway at present, where we are currently on the monthly chart should tell you why.
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