Introduction: The AUD/USD currency pair is exhibiting compelling signals hinting at a potential trend reversal, with a particular focus on the recent price action and key technical levels.
Current Status: As of the close of the New York session, the price has firmly held ground at 0.65100, maintaining its position above crucial support levels. A noteworthy observation on the daily timeframe is the rebound from the 31.8% Fibonacci retracement level, signaling resilience in the bullish sentiment.
Structural Shift: The narrative evolves further when examining the structure of the market. From early November, there was a notable Break of Structure (BOS), suggesting a shift in market dynamics. However, as of November 16, a Change of Character (CHOC) is evident, signaling a potential reversal in the prevailing trend.
4-Hour Bullish Momentum: Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, candlestick patterns reflect a robust bullish trend. Multiple bullish candles with few wicks rejecting the 0.65150 zone, coupled with positive volume, create a compelling case for an imminent breakout. The 0.65150 level, appearing as a psychological barrier, is poised for a potential rupture.
Long Position Opportunity: Considering the current dynamics, there appears to be a Long Position opportunity on the horizon. A favorable entry scenario is anticipated if the price successfully breaks the 0.65150 zone and undergoes a retest, confirming the newfound support. This setup presents a potential profit target of approximately 80 pips.
Intraday Insights: During the overlap of the London and New York sessions, the price action adds another layer of intrigue. A Hammer candlestick followed by a Belt candlestick suggests a tussle between sellers and buyers. Despite the sellers' attempt to push the price down, the momentum from buyers appears to be gaining strength, setting the stage for a potential rally.
Conclusion: In conclusion, the AUD/USD pair is displaying multiple indicators signaling a potential reversal and the initiation of a bullish trend. Traders are advised to closely monitor the 0.65150 zone for a breakout, and consider a Long Position with a retest confirmation. The recent price action, structural shifts, and intraday patterns collectively contribute to a compelling case for a rally in the Aussie.