denovo
Long

Potential change of daily trend with an excellent R/R ratio...

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
36 0 1
First of all, I want to remind the top-and-bottom-pickers among us (that includes me) that trying to pick tops and bottoms is generally an exercise in futility that will leave you poorer and psychologically damaged. If you do it often, expect pain. LOTS OF IT. This idea is not meant to be trading advice, and if you blindly follow anything I say and lose money trading based on my thinking... well, that's YOUR bad. Just because I'm willing to take a chance here doesn't mean you should. Having said that...

By almost any criteria one might use, the daily chart says we're in a downtrend. In this scenario, I would ordinarily be looking for a rally to jump in on the short side; but there are a few indications that we're at or near what should be a significant low that's worth a shot at a long trade. Although not shown here, the weekly chart indicates that a major low was made in January and the current downtrend on the daily chart is simply a correction (or part of a correction) to a long-term uptrend.

The numbering displayed here on the daily chart is Tom DeMark's trademarked "TD Aggressive Combo" method for identifying potential turning points before price confirms them. The number 13 at the low is the end of the countdown phase of this approach, and indicates a likely point for a potential reversal.

On the 6-hour chart, Barry Burn's modified MACD has formed a bullish pattern (apart from the divergence pattern of the MACD double bottom ) that indicates upward momentum has been building for several days (for a different take on how to interpret this indicator, see his Foundations courses). If Friday's highs are tested again, it appears the resistance will be broken.

Finally, the modified slow stochastic I use for timing entries on the 90-minute chart has formed two divergences, with the latest one being last Thursday's cycle low (it's common for the second divergence in this indicator to signal the end of the cycle when supported by the longer time-frames). At that point, a reversal bar formed and a long trade triggered at the break of it's high, at the asking price of 0.79098.

As I was travelling at the time the trade triggered, I missed the entry trigger. I'm now looking for a long entry if price declines below that level and then breaks it again to the upside (or forms another reversal bar/trigger at a lower level).

Stop-loss at 0.71760
1st target: 0.73110 (sell 1/3 of initial position)
2nd target: 0.74947 (sell 1/3 of initial position)
Trail stop-loss on remainder
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