Early on in yesterday’s segment, we saw Aussie employment data print better-than-expected figures. This caused the AUD/USD to aggressively advance higher and eventually close above the H4 mid-level resistance barrier at 0.7450. As you can see, the pair came within a cat’s whisker of clipping the underside of May’s opening level at 0.7481/H4 61.8% Fib resistance at 0.7470 taken from the high 0.7556 (green zone) before turning lower. This was unfortunate as we were poised to short from this zone, as highlighted in Thursday’s report.
With the bigger picture showing weekly price retesting the underside of a resistance zone at 0.7524-0.7446 (has been in motion since mid-2016), and daily flow also seen retesting a resistance area seen within the weekly zone at 0.7449-0.7506, we feel sellers could potentially push this market much lower. Further supporting this, a daily selling wick printed yesterday, and the overall trend in this market is largely facing south.
Our suggestions: In light of the above, we’re looking for either of the following:
1. Price to rally and test our pre-determined H4 sell zone mentioned above in green. However, one should expect a fakeout of this zone in the event that this occurs. The reason for why simply comes down to the potential H4 AB=CD approach taken from the low 0.7388 (see black arrows).
2. Should we see a decisive close below the 0.74 handle, shorts on any retest seen at this number are an option, targeting the H4 mid-level support at 0.7350 as an initial take-profit target, followed by the top edge of a daily support area at 0.7326 (the next downside target on the daily timeframe).
Data points to consider: No high-impacting new events on the docket today.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A). • Sells: 0.7481/0.7470 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle, preferably a full-bodied candle, to form before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick). Watch for H4 price to engulf 0.74 and then look to trade any retest of this number seen thereafter ([waiting for a H4 bearish candle to form following the retest is advised] stop loss ideally beyond the candle’s wick).