FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
244 0 1
Fundamental Analysis:
There is no major Aus economic data next week, all attention is in US economic data:
- Consumer Confidence on Tuesday
- Durable Goods Orders on Thursday
- GDP on Friday.
The main focus is Durable Goods Orders because it’s the leading indicator for US economy. Durable Goods Orders is very sensitive with any change in economy condition, is an early alert for entire economy. I hope Durable Goods Orders contract from -4.3% declines in January. If Durable Goods Orders decline the second month, it is the big problem for prospect of US economy in the long term.
Regarding US GDP, I think it would retrace a little bit from 3.2%, but it should be above 3% to support for US economy.
There is still one more important piece of data traders should not ignore: Consumer Confidence. If Consumer Confidence is positive, it would be a good signal for upcoming Durable Goods Orders. If Consumer Confidence is positive, US consumers bravely buy more goods, and US factory would have more orders.
In my opinion, I will wait until Durable Goods Orders is released. If you like to take risk, you can hit your position when Consumer Confidence is released.
-Technical Analysis:
38.2% Fib retracement and 23.6% Fib retracement now provide support and resistance for A/U.
I think this situation cannot hold longer. The breakout must occur.
Durable Goods Orders would decide the direction for AUDUSD             .
Price currently reached the edge of Kumo cloud.
The bearish wedge I show on the chart provides support and resistance .
50% Fib fan also provides a good resistance.
If AUDUSD             breaks 50% Fib fan + 38.2% Fib retracement, it would open the door for next levels:
- 0.9160 + 50% Fib retracement level: 0.9200
If AUDUSD             breaks 23% Fib retracement level: 11.4% Fib retracement at 0.8785 level would be test.
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