EuroMotif
Short

AUDUSD to reach down to .58500 by end of 2018 ?

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
I was just perusing the AU weekly chart, and this rising wedge jumped out at me.

So I drew a couple of lines and noticed:
- Wedge bottom has 4 touches, plus a PERFECT Retest
- Wedge top has 4 touches though not as perfect.
- Start of drop from previous low is clear, so that is my flag pole.

Thus I am picturing two possible targets:
1) Bottom of Wedge (previous low so a double bottom )
2) Exact Flag Pole extension (for possible EW wave 5)

I am NOT in any AU position right now, but watching.
I am NOT a regular AUD trader, so I completely missed this.
Wedge bottom retest would have been a GREAT entry with high R:R.

Will be watching for relief rallies to short at this point.
Comment: Watching this rally for possible shorting opp.


4h chart, watching these perfect Fib extensions of down move, to see what happens around the 2.618 at .7535 ish


1h chart, shows .7538 to be the .618 retrace of the last leg down


Overlaying the two fibs, I see a VERY TIGHT zone of great interest


Overlaying those fibs on my existing Fib Zones from longer term fibs, my range to watch becomes .75260 - .75380 for a 12 pip zone


Price may not get to that zone, but it does then a short entry becomes plausible.
Comment: The ''existing Fib zones'' mentioned in last pic come from this analysis:
Comment: Flag break is finally gathering momentum
Interestingly, the 3.618 extension of recent impulse puts target at original blue arrow
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Great analysis mate! are you looking to sell rallies down to .6827 or hold on position?
Reply
EuroMotif marshallblack
@marshallblack, thanks! I am selling rallies, taking some profit, then letting a little ride on each trade. Thus building a position with ''house money'' :)
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Do you still think .585?

I think AUDUSD is a great short. $DXY definitely strengthening and AUD weakening given macroeconomic situation, especially given the FED increasing rates and the reluctance of the RBA to increase rates given the housing market volatility.

Geopolitics and trade a big player for the both of them and I see USD remaining solid.
Reply
EuroMotif Conchobhair
@Conchobhair, Agreed. USD should remain strong.
I am still watching the moves to see if .585 seems plausible. That might be a stretch, but as you mentioned there are many factors pushing it down.
My first TP is around .6827 as a double bottom. I will be watching the action around there for clues....
+1 Reply
Conchobhair EuroMotif
@euromotives, Nice.

I don't trade FX but strong USDAUD is nice anyway as my crypto and stocks all priced in USD. Thanks.
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