So I drew a couple of lines and noticed:
- bottom has 4 touches, plus a PERFECT Retest
- top has 4 touches though not as perfect.
- Start of drop from previous low is clear, so that is my flag pole.
Thus I am picturing two possible targets:
1) Bottom of (previous low so a )
2) Exact Flag Pole extension (for possible EW wave 5)
I am NOT in any position right now, but watching.
I am NOT a regular AUD trader, so I completely missed this.
bottom retest would have been a GREAT entry with high R:R.
Will be watching for relief rallies to short at this point.
4h chart, watching these perfect Fib extensions of down move, to see what happens around the 2.618 at .7535 ish
1h chart, shows .7538 to be the .618 retrace of the last leg down
Overlaying the two fibs, I see a VERY TIGHT zone of great interest
Overlaying those fibs on my existing Fib Zones from longer term fibs, my range to watch becomes .75260 - .75380 for a 12 pip zone
Price may not get to that zone, but it does then a short entry becomes plausible.
Interestingly, the 3.618 extension of recent impulse puts target at original blue arrow
the Trading View is my Nation.
the Moderator Tag is my Flag.
I think AUDUSD is a great short. $DXY definitely strengthening and AUD weakening given macroeconomic situation, especially given the FED increasing rates and the reluctance of the RBA to increase rates given the housing market volatility.
Geopolitics and trade a big player for the both of them and I see USD remaining solid.
I am still watching the moves to see if .585 seems plausible. That might be a stretch, but as you mentioned there are many factors pushing it down.
My first TP is around .6827 as a double bottom. I will be watching the action around there for clues....