ICmarkets

AUD/USD: Technical outlook and review...

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
181 0 0
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that buying interest is currently being seen from within weekly demand at 0.7449-0.7678. In addition to this, we can also see further support coming in from a long-term weekly trendline extended from the low 0.4775 seen way back in 2001.

Daily Timeframe: A clear reaction was seen yesterday around the upper limits of daily demand seen at 0.7449-0.7598 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand). Consequent to this, price has closed above a daily swap level coming in at 0.7691, and as a result, likely cleared the path north towards daily supply seen at 0.7859-0.7789.

4hr Timeframe: Recent developments from the 4hr timeframe show price closed above 0.7600, and retested this number with a (deep) bullish pin bar candle. This move subsequently saw the Aussie Dollar rocket north, breaking above 0.7682 and testing a fresh 4hr supply area at 0.7738-0.7714, which, as you can probably see, has now forced the market into consolidation.

A breakout north from here would likely force the market to test a 4hr swap level seen just above at 0.7756. Shorting this level is not really a place we’d consider high probability since the 4hr supply (0.7738-0.7714), which would be considered demand at that point, could potentially repel the market and cause a loss. With that being said, the area that has really caught our eye for shorts recently is seen above here, within the green circle at 0.7802, the reasons for why are as follows:

1. Friday’s NFP sell off began here, which means there could be unfilled sell orders left around this zone.
2. Converging downtrend line extended from the high 0.7900.
3. Located within daily supply at 0.7859-0.7789.

On the other hand, should a close below 0.7682 be seen today, we’ll then shift our attention to begin looking for price to retest this level as resistance, since there’s very little, as far as we can see, stopping price from plunging down to 0.7600 from here.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: 0.7802 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

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