motleifaul
Short

Steep fall possible

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
287 7 2
Some may see a Head and Shoulder here. I am very reluctant with such but in this case I can't help me I see a falling structure with one correction failed to reverse the fall and the second is in a critical phase. This coul even establish a new downtrend.
Well, it is the medium line "only" but when I am looking at the 4h chart then a retracement back to the upper line becomes possible without changing the new downtrend. I will not risk this, thats why I closed the whole position now.
I know, Technician sees a H&S formation with a broken neckline here which would result in rates below 0,91. But perhaps he isn't aware enough of the August high which would act as an additional resistance point. I am reluctant here and prefer ForceFollowers NZD/CAD 4h long trading view.
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It was a steep fall in fall. Exactly in the time estimated the rate reched my pivot at the green line. So I took a first tranche of profit now. Next target is the yellow p-line which should be reched on friday or monday. Mind the stopps!
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ForceFollower motleifaul
I give you that - you read it very well! Well done!
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motleifaul ForceFollower
Thank you very much!
I take another part of profit now as the medium line is reached. The remaining position is waiting for line D with a tight stop.
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aussie will rise till 7pm eastern then a fall towards 0.9240 but not below 0.9225 for target above parity g.l

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:-))
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Your scenario is interesting, but it assumes a sudden or powerful strengthening of the US dollar and/or the same for weakening of the Aussie. It is possible, but, in my opinion, quite unlikely :-). I am actually bullish here, given the current correction is already larger in price terms than the previous one (viewed in H4), so I expect AUD/USD to reach 0.95000, which is 50% size of the green October up swing.
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