Our take on the Aussie dollar...

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
162 0 0
Weekly view: Following the rebound from demand at 0.6768-0.6942, price continued to extend higher last week gaining about ninety pips in value into the close 0.7181. In addition to this, the Aussie dollar came so very close to connecting with supply at 0.7438-0.7315. In fact, it came within forty pips, which is absolutely nothing considering that this is the weekly timeframe .

Weekly levels to watch this week fall in at: 0.7438-0.7315/0.6768-0.6942.

Daily view: Rolling a page lower to the daily timeframe , we can see that Thursday and Friday’s action painted back-to-back selling wicks that pierced through both supply at 0.7204-0.7119, and a swap resistance level at 0.7227. Could this, coupled with a near hit of weekly supply, be enough to send this market lower this week? Let’s see what the 4hr timeframe has to say…

Daily levels to watch this week fall in at: 0.7204-0.7119/0.7227.

4hr view: Going into Friday’s sessions, the bulls began strong. However, mid-way through London trade, this buying interest dried up and a heavy round of selling was seen from just below 0.7282 – a nice-looking ignored Quasimodo level. This, as you can see, printed two (near) full-bodied bearish candles, pushing price back below 0.7200 to end the week. The next downside target to watch comes in around demand at 0.7136-0.7163.

So, let’s see what we have here:

• Moderate selling seen from just below weekly supply at 0.7438-0.7315.
• Selling wicks seen on the daily scale that have on two occasions stabbed through two significant resistances (0.7204-0.7119/0.7227).
• Little room for price to continue lower on the 4hr timeframe as demand sits just below at 0.7136-0.7163.

Given the above, we have little interest buying from the current 4hr demand zone . Instead, what we’re going to be looking for early on in the week is a deep push into this zone and a break below/retest of the mid-level hurdle seen within at 0.7150. This will, in effect, be our cue to begin watching for lower timeframe selling confirmation to enter short. The reason for why we are looking to short within this demand rather than enter long should be obvious from the above. The higher timeframes are indicating further selling could be on the cards this week and we’re simply looking to take advantage of this potential momentum.

Levels to watch/ live orders:

• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for bids at 0.7150 to be consumed and then look to enter on any retest seen at this number (confirmation required).

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