Sforex

AUSSIE NEXT WEEK: CPI PLAYS THE KEY ROLE

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
185 1 0
- Fundamental Analysis:
So what we have next week:
- First quarter CPI             of Australia on Tuesday
- Durable Good Orders of US on Thursday
The CPI             data would play the key role, the momentum for the move of Aussie. Market expects it will rise to 3.2% from 2.7% which describes recent development of economy of Kangaroo country. I checked all economic data of Australia last three months, the CPI             likely beats the forecast, but it could miss the forecast: I am not sure. The improvement by 0.5% to 3.2% from 2.7% is quite high; particularly in the context that commodity prices are falling down causing pressure on CPI             .
If the CPI             beats the forecast, the Aussie would come back the uptrend to 0.95; on the contrary, if the CPI             misses the forecast, A/U absolutely continues the correction, dump to 0.9230 because Durable Good Orders most likely would be positive and transfers the impact to A/U.
After the data is released, there is still a lot of room for Short and Long position, so I don’t worry much; I will wait until the data is published, and hit the position.
- Technical Analysis
No much TA currently, I just see the trendl line in RSI is broken. If CPI             is negative, the downtrend confirmative, and you confidently Short A/U to 0.9231

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maccabean
2 years ago
Thanks for the chart. I agree CPI is important.
Take into consideration the inflation correlation between New Zealand and Australia. It is a medium to strong correlation about. The most recent CPI data that came in last week for New Zealand was below expectations at 0.3 instead of 0.5.
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