The AUDUSD moved up last week on 3 days and had a minor correction on the last 2 days.
There is divergence present between
1. Correlation - The Aussie is normally highly correlated to the EURO ( monthly basis 92%) , but recently has a diminished correlation ( week basis 32%).
2. COT data - The Aussie had price moving up , and the large speculators have become less net long in position.
3. Oscillators - Price has moved down from March 2017 , and yet the oscillators (Momentum and RSI) make an equal high. (
Technically
1. Support and Resistance - price has touched and bounced lower from the .7560 intermediate resistance level.
2. Moving Averages - over the long term (200MAV) price is fair, but is 60 pips above the short term average (20 MAV). It is also 90 pips above the monthly pivot.
3. Supporting Trendlines - the first is at .7340 and the second at .7180.
4. Pattern - 2 year corrective triangle ( with 2 options to label the Elliot wave patterns if you wish)
So if we go with the Smart Money (large specs) , and Aussie moves further down to correlate with Euro , Price may go the targets shown on the chart.
There is divergence present between
1. Correlation - The Aussie is normally highly correlated to the EURO ( monthly basis 92%) , but recently has a diminished correlation ( week basis 32%).
2. COT data - The Aussie had price moving up , and the large speculators have become less net long in position.
3. Oscillators - Price has moved down from March 2017 , and yet the oscillators (Momentum and RSI) make an equal high. (
Technically
1. Support and Resistance - price has touched and bounced lower from the .7560 intermediate resistance level.
2. Moving Averages - over the long term (200MAV) price is fair, but is 60 pips above the short term average (20 MAV). It is also 90 pips above the monthly pivot.
3. Supporting Trendlines - the first is at .7340 and the second at .7180.
4. Pattern - 2 year corrective triangle ( with 2 options to label the Elliot wave patterns if you wish)
So if we go with the Smart Money (large specs) , and Aussie moves further down to correlate with Euro , Price may go the targets shown on the chart.