ICmarkets

AUD/USD: Technical outlook and review.

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
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Weekly Timeframe: A full-bodied bearish candle has been seen closing below a long-term weekly consolidation area at 0.94600-0.92046. In our humble opinion, it appears there is very little obvious weekly demand until price reaches the weekly Quasimodo support level at 0.88189, which is beautifully located just above a weekly demand area at 0.86591-0.88247. Be that as it may, we should not discount the possibility a retest of the 0.92046 level (now resistance) may very well be seen sometime soon.

Daily Timeframe: The daily demand area seen at 0.89942-0.90510 has seen a small break (0.89826) below. Initially, this break had ‘fakeout’ written all over it, but considering the weekly timeframe is not trading around any obvious demand at the moment, we believe this is a signal for lower prices, and consequently could encourage follow-through selling down to around a daily Quasimodo support level at 0.88189 (also seen on the weekly timeframe). The reason price could drop this far south is solely because of the tail marked with a red circle at 0.89226. This tail likely resembles demand consumption indicating the buyers have already been cleared.

4hr Timeframe: A reaction around the huge psychological number 0.9 has been seen, and as a result our price action confirmation buy level (0.90081) was triggered in the process. For this round-number level to be deemed valid for buying, a break above the small 4hr decision-point area at 0.90673-0.90420 will need to be seen. It is hardly surprising active selling is currently taking place around this area, as do not forget both the weekly and daily timeframes indicate lower prices are very possible (see above). If follow-through selling is seen, resulting in a positive 4hr close below the round number 0.9, we will then be looking to take full advantage of a possible retest, targeting a fresh 4hr demand at 0.89226-0.89485 below.

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

• Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: 0.90081(Active-awaiting confirmation) (Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit levels(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.


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