Last time I told you that there’s a special algorithm helping to recognize XA legs. I’m going to reveal the sequence of actions right now.
Step #1. Always keep in mind that most people make their decisions to buy or sell currency without ever seeing charts. All they know is price. In many cases they know some price range. See what I mean? You may argue about impulses and corrections but price moves one tick up because those “most people” have bought all the offers at one-tick-lower price.
Step #2. Look at the last market movements. The final point of this movement is B-point.
Step #3. Look along this movement to its initial point. It’s A-point.
By these manipulations we have established an A to B range.
Step #4. Look left and find a larger range in relation to which the AB range can be called corrective. This larger range MUST end at the same point the smaller range starts from. It’s A-point. This larger range should look like 2 or 1.5 times larger than AB range. The initial point of this larger move is POTENTIAL X-point. Note that potential X point MUST be some sort of structure point. See “Thoughts about . Some tips and secrets. Part III” to find out what I call structure point.
Step #4. Grab your tool. Stretch the tool from potential X-point to A-point. Look at your B-point. Does it touch 50%? If not, then move your potential X-point to a higher structure point (for bull patterns) or lower structure point (for bear patterns). Restretch the tool from this new potential X-point to A-point. Is B-point Ok now? If B-point goes through 50% and touches 61,8% then move your potential X-point to a lower structure point (for bull bats) or to a higher structure point (for bear bats). Restretch the fibs. Is B OK now? Remember: B-point MUST at least touch 50% and never touch 61,8% If there’re no structure points that allow your B-point rest in 50-61,8% range then there won’t be any Bat patterns.
Step #5. If there are more than one structure point allowing B-point rest in 50%-61,8% range, then choose whatever makes XA larger.
Step #6. After you have found a proper X-point placement measure the XA move. How many pips it is? To find out what size of XA move was proven to be optimal see Part I.
Do backtestings to train your eyes. It’s all about practice. If you will practice long enough you will recognize proper XA simultaneously.
a) some trade stop out,
b) some trades hit T1 then hit trailed breakeven stop loss
c) some trades hit T1 then hit a trailled stop loss above break even but not at T2
d) some trades hit T1 and T2
The average is a combination of all of the above.... but the best thing to do is buy forextester 2 for $150 (trust me it's worth every cent... as you can test something yourself) and then do exactly that...
If you don't do the testing yourself you won't have the confidence to know it makes money and keep going even when things are not going well...
Speaking from experience... had 5 losses yesterday mainly becuase of FOMC shaking up the USD with only 1 win, luckily the win erased most of the other losses but today is looking much better with a win about to hit target which will make up yesterdays losses and then some...
Do the work yourself... it's the only way to trust it
For example, you use fixed fractional MM. You only risk 1% per trade no matter what size your account is. Also no matter what size XA means. Always 1%.
Eurusd after 100 trades (a - T1, b - T2):
a) 1*48=48% It is total loss
1,3*52=67,6% It is total win
b) 1*48=48% It is total loss
2,2*23=50,6% It is total win
29% left zeroes.
Total loss is 96%. Total win is 118,2%. Net Profit is 22,2%.
100 trades is about 1 month trading. If you trade 3 pairs you have about 60% monthly return)). Trading Lower Time Frames is better for me because it provides more rapid circle of wins and losses. All your statistic data is circled within 1 month of trading. It's almost impossible to have a losing month (in case you follow the rules literally). Trading H1 on the other hand requires more time for statistic circle come to end. One pair only gives you 5-6 trades per month. For more or less precise statistics we need 100 and more trades. How much time should you trade to find out that the pattern works good on this specific pair? 16 months? 17? The only way is to have many many pairs. 12 to 16. But note that statistic of one pair is no way interconnected with the statistic of another. I know that my pattern can give me 8 losses in a row (and then it gives me new equity highs). Thinking the worst: all my pairs give me 8 losses in a row. I have only three pairs. So, my max sequence of losses would be 24. But what if all 16 pairs give me 8 losses in a row. Hypothetically it is possible. 128 losses in a row! And what if you have more than 1 pattern. For example, 3 patterns. In some harsh times they all give you 8 losses in a row. But in the harshest times they all give you 8 losses in a row on EVERY pair you trade. Could it be possible? Absolutely yes. IF SOME SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE, IT WILL HAPPEN SOONER OR LATER. It's just a matter of time.
That's why I do what I do the way I do it))