ICmarkets
Long

Aussie in an interesting place right now...

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
444 1 3
Weekly view: The AUD/USD             pair suffered a nasty decline in value last week, losing a little over 250 pips into the close 0.6908. This assault ended with price taking out a large weekly demand at 0.6951-0.7326, and connecting with a small weekly demand just below it at 0.6768-0.6942. In the event that the buyers manage to hold this never-ending downside momentum from here, we may see a correction up to weekly supply coming in at 0.7438-0.7315.

Daily view: Moving down to the daily timeframe , it is clear to see that the recent decline took out daily demand at 0.6988-0.7098, and slammed into another daily demand zone just below at 0.6768-0.6923 (Located deep within weekly demand mentioned above at 0.6768-0.6942). The next upside target from this base falls in at a small link-like daily supply zone drawn from 0.7061-0.6991.

4hr view: Mid-way through Friday’s London session – NFP news time, price spiked north tagging in offers around the large psychological resistance 0.7000, which sent this market tumbling south. During this sell-off, the mid-level support 0.6950 was taken out and retested as resistance, forcing the AUD to close the week just above the 0.6900 handle.

In that price is now positioned just above a potential buy zone (pink circle), comprising of 0.6900, a 4hr descending channel support (0.7030) and also an AB=CD support completing at 0.6980, a certain harmony is being seen in this market. All three timeframes that we follow show price at supportive structures (see above in bold). On that account, should we be looking to buy this market? With the AUD still in one stonking great downtrend from back in mid-2011, it’s still very difficult for us to be confident buying this pair. Therefore, buying from the current 4hr buy zone will need to see very attractive lower timeframe buying confirmation (30/60 minute) before we’d consider risking capital on this idea. Depending on how price reacts at this base will determine how we’ll trade this pair further on in the week.

Levels to watch/ live orders:

• Buys: 0.6900/0.6980 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).


Nickmail
a year ago
3 month
it can 0.682
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