TayFx

Market Analysis and KeyEventRisk + Multi Month Target's et..al

Short
FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Today, the dollar index held steady above 99 and stayed near levels last seen in May 2020. Investors looked at geopolitical and economic concerns over the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and they bought dollars as a safe-haven. The long-running conflict in Ukraine didn't seem to go away, and it kept causing chaos around the world. This has led to a big rise in commodity prices, which has raised inflation and growth concerns and made it more difficult for central banks. At its March meeting, I expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, but the chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell, said that if inflation keeps rising, the Fed might act more quickly. People now want to see the U.S. inflation data on Thursday, which is expected to show that 7.9 percent was the rate of inflation in February.

I expect no Farm Payrolls in the United States to be 350.00 Thousand by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations. In the long-term, I projected the United States Non Farm Payrolls to tend around 280.00 Thousand in 2023, according to our econometric models. From 1914 to 2022, the inflation rate in the United States averaged 3.25 percent, with a high of 23.70 percent in June 1920 and a low of -15.80 percent in June 1921. This page provides the current Inflation Rate in the United States, as well as historical data, forecasts, charts, statistics, an economic calendar, and recent news. The statistics, history trend, estimates, and calendar of releases for the States Inflation Rate were last updated in March 2022.

On Tuesday, the dollar index maintained its recent gains to rise beyond 99 points, hovering near levels last seen in May 2020 and benefiting from safe-haven inflows as investors assessed the geopolitical and economic dangers surrounding the Russia-Ukraine confrontation. The protracted crisis in Ukraine showed no signs of abating and continued to wreak havoc on international financial markets. Because of this, commodity prices have risen dramatically, fueling inflationary and growth concerns while posing new challenges to central banks. The Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting, but Fed head Jerome Powell has hinted that the central bank might act more forcefully if inflation continues to rise at its current levels in the future. Investors are now expecting the release of US inflation data on Thursday, which is expected to show another multi-decade high of 7.9 percent in February of this year.

The American economy added 678K jobs in February of 2022, the most in seven months and way above market forecasts of 400K. Job growth was widespread, led by leisure and hospitality (179K), namely food services and drinking places (124K) and accommodation (28K); professional and business services (95K), mainly temporary help services (36K), management of companies and enterprises (12K) and management and technical consulting services (10K); health care (64K); and construction (60K). That leaves employment 2.1 million jobs below its pre-pandemic level and many economists believe the job market could recover all the pandemic losses this year. Fed Chair recently said to Congress the labour market was "extremely tight", but the crisis in Ukraine poses new risks to the economic and inflation outlook.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.