AUDUSD short follow up

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
578 10 16
Last week we shorted AUDUSD             just after the NFP with the potential of an even bigger trade.
Yesterday we saw the break lower and I'm still holding my original short. Nevertheless nothing moves in a straight line and therefore i will be watching for a consolidation before selling the AUDUSD             again.

The wave count is an indication and too soon to tell at the moment since this current leg lower might accelerate. However selling from this zone is not interesting for me.
Updates will follow once we see a clear consolidation to be in progress.


Comment: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/s0ozu7mw/

I mentioned that we needed to let price make a first leg lower followed by a retest and the AUDUSD showed us why. It made a third leg higher towards 0.741 which was also the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level.
I entered short after the first consolidation ended based on the 15 min time frame. For day trading you might have taken some profit already but for the swing trade that might follow your stop should be at Break-even and make this a risk free trade.

Short term we need to determine where this current bullish move is taking us. I like to see it settle and unfold in a more sideways pattern which will indicate a continuation lower which will present another sell opportunity. If however we see an impulse higher this might unfold into a more complex corrective combination.

Updates will follow but the bias remains bearish and selling after a consolidation is what I'm looking for short term.
very nice bounce off to complete your setup
Offside by 60 pips :) Should have took my profits at the bottom of that sell impulse move. Just gonna let it roll, either hits my stop loss or makes a reversal and sells off. Once again, great analysis.
+1 Reply

We saw the reversal which was pretty sharp so it is safer to let price settle and create some kind of flag pattern with a clear 2 wave structure as shown by means of the ABC count (indication)
+1 Reply
Thanks for your charts, they're really helpful to newcomers to EW.

A quick question, when you say clear consolidation do you mean in a HTF such as H1 and upwards? Or would you look for consolidation at a lower timeframe?

Thanks again
TimStuyts erniegerdie
When it comes to a consolidation I always refer to the time frame where we spotted the impulse at. A consolidation (correction) should unfold in at least 3 waves of smaller degree, so give it some time to show us a clear trade set-up. If you want to trade more aggressively you simply move on to a smaller time frame. Hope this answers your question.
+1 Reply
erniegerdie TimStuyts
Yes, thats very helpful, save time from searching in different timeframes for confirmation. Thanks
Thank you so much ....
you're welcome!

This is the channel as supposed to be drawn. It is ok for a wave 5 to undershoot the chanel.
HOWEVER keep in mind that in terms of wave count this might be a 1-2, 1-2 pattern instead of the 1-2-3-4 pattern on the chart with wave 5 currently in progress.
That's what I mean with 'it might accelerate lower'. Key is the bearish impulse which results in selling opportunities after a consolidation.
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