AUDUSD - Potential Short Imminent (2nd Entry) with FOMC's Minutes later today
Please check the main chart with link below which shows larger bearish cycle with lot of room to the downside.
I am publishing this chart purely because the nature of retracement seems to suggest we have abc zigzag retracement with potentially wave "c" as being ending diagonal (Rising Wedge) which if correct would offer very clear stop loss placement and the breakdown is likely to resume the bearish cycle with wave (iii) developing which could be stronger than the wave (i) decline.
This potential short entry might line up with FOMC's minutes later today.
Downside target could be at least retest of the last low or lower still. See the main chart referred to above.
There is no need of any further note except to remind all:
As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, constructive comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
Agree too but for different reasons. Have 77.35-45 marked out for a short. Am interested in your analysis, I have a question about your SL placement. U say it is very clear where it should be placed. My limited knowledge of EW suggests that Wave 3 can't be the shortest. Wave 1 longer than 3 (100 pips) so Wave 5 has to be shorter than 3...therefore SL must be 100 above the next swing low? Is this how u will determine SL placement or is there another method. If u don't have time to answer just tell me where it is and |I will try and work out the method!
DanV
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Thank you for your comments and question.
You are correct that wave iii cannot be the shortest. In this rising wedge format it would then follow that wave 4 would be the shortest.Hence you care correct that even if the wave v happens to have an over throw it cannot go beyond the length of wave iii applied from low of wave iv.
However as we approach 0.7740 -0.7750 zone look for evidence of potential reversal signal using smaller time frame like Hourly. Then may be you could get in short entry with 50 pips or less stop loss. But keeping in mind that the reversal must take place before the max high for the move as you have noted. Otherwise a review of analysis might be necessary.
Hope this helps.
fash
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Thanks for answering Dan...just like to say that I always find your posts interesting and educational. Keep up the good work fella!
DanV
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Thankyou.
I will indeed.
SunnyBOT0
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Hi Dan. I like the short level. Will be watching the FOMC closely today
DanV
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Thanks.
Yes indeed. If it does not trigger at the FOMC it might later on in the week. One to watch for sure.
tcas
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Totally agree. It looks like from 0.77200-0.77300 we can look for sell.
Target 1 - 0.76200
Target 2 - 0.75100