EverythingForex

QUICK ANALYSIS: AUDUSD: Waiting wave (B) To Finish. Then What?

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
So after hitting for +374 pips on the last trade I made on this pair, the question now becomes: What next? So here I am showing what I am seeing as the next possible move which would be a wave (C) up to complete the wave (4). Then we should see a significant wave (5) down.

I'm thinking that the wave (B) should end just around he 70 cents level where there is a AB=CD pattern in the wave (B) at 0.70038. I remember there was a guy who doubted me when I said that this pair would retest the 69-70 cents level and asked me why I was so sure it would do so? Well, I sincerely hope he didn't lose too much money doubting me!

Anyway, what I am seeing is that this wave (4) is going to unfold in an ABC 5-3-5 Zigzag pattern with wave (A) already unfolded in 5 waves and now wave (B) in 3 waves. That would mean we should expect that wave (C) will be a 5 wave move. So should be looking for wave 1 next.

ABOUT THE PATTERNS
After hitting on that nice downtrend off the cypher #1 (green), that leaves cypher #2 still intact and valid. After wave (B) ends, that ending will become a C point for a POTENTIAL bearish Gartley . Now here's where some people may disagree or be confused about this Gartley . Gartley's as you may know, have a B point at .618. If you look at the B point of the Gartley on the 4HR chart, you'll see that the B point has CLOSED above the .618 retrace of XA. HUH? Then why is it a Gartley you might ask? If you go to the DAILY CHART as I show below, you will see that the B point DOES NOT close above .618 retrace of XA! Sure, it does have a wick that goes above the .618 but that wick does not reach the next pattern fib level of .786 to be considered a butterfly . This is why for me, this is a valid Gartley . You could also make the case that it should be considered a crab and you would not be wrong. But in this case, I am calling it a Gartley because it fits into my overall wave count whereas a crab would violate my wave count. It's D point would have the ending of wave (4) in the price territory of wave (1) and that would break my wave count.

Another thing to note is that Gartley completes right near the .382 retrace of the entire previous impulse wave down. Confluece.

DAILY CHART - Showing the POTENTIAL Bearish Gartley
snapshot

MY TRADE PLAN
I am waiting for the wave (B) to finish. When it does, I will be going LONG on this pair again.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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We got a nice confirmation with that Daily PIN bar, an entry on the low of the previous Day (left eye), seems a good entry to me. Money flow is also supporting the story here, I will sit back, let the market do its thing and
hopefully enjoy the ride.
Reply
Nice inside, thanks. I exited my short trade based on the 4H chart 20 mins ago, now considering long. I never took the time to analyze wave patterns, I just trade the clean areas if I get my PA signal, works fine for me. But after reading some of your post's, I will dig into that a bit. Thanks for putting your thoughts online here.
Reply
Stick with what works for you and stick to your trading plan. No problem with adding to your knowledge base but don't ever stray too far from your base plan if it is working good for you. Going after someone else's plan just because it seems like it works better is called chasing the "Holy Grail" Grass is not always greener on the other side, my friend. I post to help those that need help. If you are doing well, you are not in need of help, right? But in any case, you are always welcome to check out my posts and trades to see if it matches your own.
+1 Reply
Tr8erTom EverythingForex
Couldn't agree more! I'm always curious to learn and extend my knowledge, BUT everything which is new to me and I'm unfamiliar with, will be Demo traded for at least 6months. If I get constant results, well then that means I have another Instrument I can play.
Everything else will lead to losses and as most of us, I had to learn that too.
Reply
any update about this trade? plz
Reply
What kind of update are you asking for? I don't update every trade hour by hour, sir. Yes, I know prices are dropping. Just as I said could happen in the trade description above. I have my stops on this trade near 69 cents below the lowest low so this drop does not concern me at all. It was anticipated (though not welcomed). I am not going to micro-manage this trade as it is a LONG TERM trade for me. I can afford the risk under my trading plan. It sounds as if you are worried about losing money while the prices are dropping now. If you are, then you should not be in the trade.
+2 Reply
SkyrEk EverythingForex
Hey mate, you are definitely not obligated to attend to such requests made by people. They are just overly concerned about their trades and desperate to hear something from you that goes in favour with their trades taken. Anyway, have a great day ahead!
Reply
Thanks, mate. I do understand why they ask. But I don't have anything to say about it I haven't already said. But thanks for the supportive words!
+3 Reply
I am very new to Binary Trading and I like the way you explain the outlook of the currency pair. I am still trying to grasp the concepts. I have a broker for now. Thanks
Reply
I don't see the reason to be long AUD given slow down in China and easy policy of RBA?
+1 Reply
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