justatrader

AUDUSD - Tricky price action

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
530 8 7
Noticed quite some debate on Technician's chart on AUDUSD             . So here's my take on the Aussie.

Price in an extended downtrend for sure, but recent price action has been turning bullish . Price broke the down sloping TL retested it and pushing higher. I plot my TL's using line chart (connecting only closing prices, which gives a better respecting TL's). Right side chart is candlesticks .

Yesterday's price rejection says something. Today's Yuan is weak but Aussie seems to be shrugging it off.

NOTES:

An inverted H&S seems to be forming (not confirmed yet)
The Inv. H&S Neckline also is a double top . So this MUST be broken for price to push any higher.
The upside target falls within the S/R zone.

How to play this?

1. Ahead of US GDP data, better to stay away from this pair
2. Tomorrow (WEEKEND) China PMI data is due. Expect some gaps....
3. Long on breakout of neckline (with additional confirmation of bullish candlestick patterns)
4. Target 9314 region and look for shorts based on rejection candlestick patterns in the zone of 9314 - 9435.
Yes, I made money on this recent rally, but until things clear up, I stay away from this pair.
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justatrader PRO ForceFollower
Weird enough.. GBPAUD and EURAUD are in consolidation, unable to make any new highs. That says something! Also AUDNZD has moved very nicely. I suspect its close to completing its bearish run. Next week looks to be very interesting. But the risk with AUD is the bloody central bank intervention every time it goes to the region of $0.9 and sadly so far it has failed to even kiss the preferred level of the central bankers of $0.85
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ForceFollower justatrader
The aussie itself looks like it's about to weaken. It may be tricky though, occurring at the time, when the kiwi is getting stronger... They liked to move in lockstep in the past, but recently seem to have uncoupled a bit.
snapshot
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hmm wads now?
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Probably downwards:
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Maybe short with a small contract and wait until Chinese data next week is out. Lots of it scheduled, starting tomorrow and then during weekdays. So expect to see some action on the Aussie. -ve chinese data = Aussie bearish. Target 0.85 (RBA's preferred sweet spot)
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Great Analysis! I'm looking at Daily Charts with Keltner Channels. I still favor Aussie shorts right now. Look how low "DXY" has moved on Friday. Clearly its due for a move up. Also look at the overbought levels on BATS:AUD last touched on 14th, January and more recently touched on 25th, December @ (91.00). We continued to see declines on the 26th, 27th, and 28th for AUD. If the Australian Bond Index doesn't bypass 91.00 which I regard as a strong resistance, I'll maintain my short and seek 0.87500.
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Also any idea on what the terrorist attacks in China imply for the already weak CNY?
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