aceofswords
Short

14 Year Trendline on AUD/USD Monthly Chart Soon To Be Tested

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
1066 5 28
The forthcoming week should prove decisive for the Australian dollars future both technically and fundamentally and could mark a turning point in its fortunes, or a continuation in its decline.

On the Monthly chart, I have TP 1 set at 0.71784

Under such conditions, there is a very good chance that the market will want to test the nearby 14 year trend-line which has only been tested 3 times since its inception in April 2001.

HIGH Impact Economic Data Releases Due This Week
Tuesday 21st July 2015
02:30am BST : RBA Meeting's Minutes
Wednesday 22nd July 2015
02:30am BST : Consumer Price Index (YoY)
02:30am BST : RBA trimmed mean CPI             (QoQ)
02:30am BST : RBA trimmed mean CPI             (QoQ)
02:30am BST : Consumer Price Index (QoQ)
04:05am BST : RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech

Reserve Bank Of Australia
From a fundamental point of view, a raft of eagerly awaited economic data will be released on Wednesday, followed later by a speech from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, but prior to this, Tuesday will see the release of the minutes of The Reserve Bank Of Australia
meetings, [published two weeks after the interest rate decision].

My view is that the RBA will be patting themselves on the back and satisfied with the recent ‘natural’ decline in the Aussies value against the USD and will be unlikely to see any real or meaningful benefit from cutting rates further, particularly as the Australian housing market has been ‘settling down’ partly as a result of past cut much to the relief of the RBA.

US Dollar             Impact
With the US Dollar             bulls in charge and currently ramping up its value against all the major and emerging currencies over the past week, and with Janet Yellen’s recent comments fuelling renewed expectations for a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in September, any rises in Australian dollar             should be quickly pared or at least stifled.

China’s Economic Concerns
Furthermore, there is the issue of China’s economic ‘trials and tribulations’ to be taken into consideration.

Australia has benefitted greatly from China’s economic success story, and any slowdown in its capacity for further expansion will be felt by its immediate neighbours, and although such effects may not be felt in an instant, the market will be fully aware of its likely implications for Australia and thus for the Australian Dollar             and will no doubt gradually factor this in to its value.

For now, the Chinese government seems to have succeeded in stopping that country’s giant stock market bubble from imploding, with the implementation of what can only be described as ‘draconian’ measures, in the hope that it would arrest any contagion into the ‘real’ economy.....But time will tell

Have a great trading week, aceofswords ;0)
Gekko.uk
a year ago
I'm buying a trillion lots when it gets there
Reply
aceofswords Gekko.uk
a year ago
Go For It ;0)
Reply
Rennie
a year ago
I don't usually like and feedback on ideas. But this is worthy. A+ sah'
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aceofswords Rennie
a year ago
Cheers bro ;0)
Reply
johnm600
11 months ago
Pretty good prediction 5 months ago.
I'm wondering how you see the future from now ?
Cheers
John
Reply
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