The forthcoming week should prove decisive for the Australian dollars future both technically and fundamentally and could mark a turning point in its fortunes, or a continuation in its decline.
On the Monthly chart, I have TP 1 set at 0.71784 [See chart for main details]
Under such conditions, there is a very good chance that the market will want to test the nearby [and surely irresistible] 14 year trend-line which has only been tested 3 times since [and including] its inception in April 2001.
HIGH Impact Economic [AUD] Data Releases Due This Week Tuesday 21st July 2015 02:30am BST : RBA Meeting's Minutes Wednesday 22nd July 2015 02:30am BST : Consumer Price Index (YoY) 02:30am BST : RBA trimmed mean CPI (QoQ) 02:30am BST : RBA trimmed mean CPI (QoQ) 02:30am BST : Consumer Price Index (QoQ) 04:05am BST : RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech
Reserve Bank Of Australia From a fundamental point of view, a raft of eagerly awaited economic data will be released on Wednesday, followed later by a speech from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, but prior to this, Tuesday will see the release of the minutes of The Reserve Bank Of Australia meetings, [published two weeks after the interest rate decision].
My view is that the RBA will be patting themselves on the back and satisfied with the recent ‘natural’ decline in the Aussies value against the USD and will be unlikely to see any real or meaningful benefit from cutting rates further, particularly as the Australian housing market has been ‘settling down’ partly as a result of past cut[s] much to the relief of the RBA.
US Dollar Impact With the US Dollar bulls in charge and currently ramping up its value against [pretty much] all the major and emerging currencies over the past week, and with Janet Yellen’s recent comments fuelling renewed expectations for a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in September, [the first in 9 years] any rises in Australian dollar should be quickly pared or at least stifled.
China’s Economic Concerns Furthermore, there is the issue of China’s economic ‘trials and tribulations’ to be taken into consideration.
Australia has benefitted greatly from China’s economic success story, and any slowdown in its capacity for further expansion will be felt by its immediate neighbours, and although such effects may not be felt in an instant, the market will be fully aware of its likely implications for Australia and thus for the Australian Dollar and will no doubt gradually factor this in to its value.
For now, the Chinese government seems to have succeeded in stopping that country’s giant stock market bubble from imploding, with the implementation of what can only be described as ‘draconian’ measures, in the hope that it would arrest any contagion into the ‘real’ economy.....But time will tell
Have a great trading week, aceofswords ;0)
Comments
johnm600
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Pretty good prediction 5 months ago.
I'm wondering how you see the future from now ?
Cheers
John
Rennie
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I don't usually like and feedback on ideas. But this is worthy. A+ sah'
I'm wondering how you see the future from now ?
Cheers
John