During that corrective retracement to the upside my initial interpretations of triangle changed to and then the anticipated move to the downside unfolded to reach the level suggested on the chart.
So now the question arises - has the cycle ended?
Well, that decline actually appears to be 3 swings instead of 5 and the overwhelming sentiments amongst the traders and Commitment of Traders ( ) data suggest that they are unwinding short bias and contemplating long bias.
In light of the above, I reviewed my overall counts with minor adjustments and in particular the price action in the recent past. This suggest to me that the cycle is not over yet and in fact we are still in complex wave iv correction and upon completion of this another wave 5 with 5 minor swings will develop for the following reasons:
1. Since 2nd Feb we have what appears to be 3-3-5 as Wave 4.
2. On completion of which we could have 5 waves decline which might reach of the 2001 low - 2011 high.
3. This has confluence with rising support of 2001 low and other Fib extension and projections in that region.
(See Monthly chart below with details for 2 & 3)
4. Cautious downside target could be 0.7450 but most likely could reach 0.7150 -0.71.
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