DanV
Short

AUDUSD - BEARISH SHORT AND INTERMEDIATE TERM - (UPDATED)

FX_IDC:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
In my last AUDUSD             chart published nearly a months a ago, I suggested that we had the prospect of potentially continuing the bearish mover for possible final leg of this bearish cycle to complete.

During that corrective retracement to the upside my initial interpretations of triangle changed to rising wedge and then the anticipated move to the downside unfolded to reach the level suggested on the chart.

So now the question arises - has the bearish cycle ended?

Well, that decline actually appears to be 3 swings instead of 5 and the overwhelming bearish sentiments amongst the traders and Commitment of Traders ( COT ) data suggest that they are unwinding short bias and contemplating long bias.

In light of the above, I reviewed my overall counts with minor adjustments and in particular the price action in the recent past. This suggest to me that the bearish cycle is not over yet and in fact we are still in complex wave iv correction and upon completion of this another bearish wave 5 with 5 minor swings will develop for the following reasons:

1. Since 2nd Feb we have what appears to be 3-3-5 Flat correction as Wave 4.
2. On completion of which we could have 5 waves decline which might reach 61.8% retracement of the 2001 low - 2011 high.
3. This has confluence with rising trendline support of 2001 low and other Fib extension and projections in that region.
(See Monthly chart below with details for 2 & 3)
4. Cautious downside target could be 0.7450 but most likely could reach 0.7150 -0.71.



As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, constructive comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
http://www.danv-charting.com
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im With you on that Trade Dan ;)
not that far, but similiar levels :)
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DanV MOD Fib.The.Gentleman
Yes indeed. Thanks for your chart too. Appreciate it.
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Fib.The.Gentleman Fib.The.Gentleman
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Update with Trade levels, Trade taken in 3 positions :)
+1 Reply
DanV MOD Fib.The.Gentleman
Excellent. Thanks.
Reply
I like this, but I am a bit hesitate to short AUD, for the following reason:
1. the bullish engulfing on weekly chart, need more candles to confirm though
2. Weakness in USD

However, RBA may talk down this soon...
Reply
DanV MOD melcloud
I agree it is not ideal looking short. But as you suggest RBA could do its part. As far as USD is concerned I think it too is in similar corrective phase with final leg to the upside due as per this chart if it holds.
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+1 Reply
Close up view of 3-3-5 Flat with Wave C being potentially an Ending diagonal
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+1 Reply
Monthly Chart referred to above
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