Aussie: Stay in Oversold zone - CPI next

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
202 0 1
I see AUDUSD             is staying in the oversold zone for a long time. Market still agressively sells Aussie across the board following the decline of commodity.

However, It seems Aussie found the support at 0.7350

Tomorrow, the main focus is Australia CPI             data.

Due to Aussie is staying in the oversold zone. We have two options on the table:

- If CPI             is negative -Aussie will break the support and extend the loss.

- If CPI             is positive- Aussie bounces back- profit taken dominate market

But Is CPI             data positive or negative ?

This is a tough question.

- Previous: 1.3 % - Consensus: 1.7% ( Economists give this number)

We have leading indicators for Australia CPI:

- TD             Inflation
- Consumer Inflation expectation

Both data showed positive number, so likely the CPI             data tomorrow could pickup vs last month. However, I DON'T BELIEVE THE DATA COULD BEAT THE CONSENSUS : ECONOMISTS IS SO OPTIMISTIC.

I think the data could print at 1.5%, 1.7% is too high.

Hence, I choose SHORT position for AUDUSD             tomorrow.

In the long term, I still favor the bearish trend . SELL THE RALLY IS THE GOOD OPTION if Aussie pullback.

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