Fundamental View: ================== RBA rates cut on May 7 for many reasons. So there is a good chance of trading. In May of 1016 RBA was cut, Then almost weak to 150/20 pips against almost all major pairs. 1.Inflation: RBA's annual inflation tag is below 2-3%, RBA does not hold the normal rate. The reason for this is to keep the * auds stable. * Keep the labor market right. * Ensure balanced income. Australia's current infusion is 1.4% where their togates are 2.5% because of which it is forced to cut rates. A break of 0.6980 triggers fresh selling towards early 2016 levels. However, the year 2016 bottom near 0.6820, followed by the January month’s flash crash low of 0.6730, can appear on the bears’ radar afterward 2. Markets are focused on Trump's renewed China trade threat and will likely keep AUD on the defensive. 3. AUD/USD risk reversals hit 3.5-month lows on Monday. 4. Investors likely buying puts in anticipation of RBA rate cut.
Technical View: ============== There are major support at the current rate of 0.6980. If the breakout is 0.6980, then the Next Target 0.6900 and Final Target 0.6830. On the other hand, there are major registrations at the current rate of 0.7110 area. 0.7110 when the area breakout, next target More than 7160, I do not see any fan coming up next Friday. *** So Sell Position Is best about 0.7000 Area Target 0.6830 Area.
but what about the strong employment data and the huge trade surplus australia just started recording, how do you factor these?
and RBA's tone shifted a bit more hawkish in its last meeting (before inflation data came out)
Saleh11
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@ahmedse, but RBA cut their bank rate and USA and China Traffic issues big effect the AUD pair. AUDUSD week minimum 100/150 pips.
and RBA's tone shifted a bit more hawkish in its last meeting (before inflation data came out)