FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Daily outlook - AUD/USD rebounds at 0.7867

  • As it was expected, the currency pair failed to jump above the 55-hour SMA and spent the rest of the previous trading day near the bottom line of a medium-term descending channel .

  • Most likely the pair could continue to move between these barriers, but a speech delivered by the RBA Assistant Governor Kent forced the Aussie to drop by 50 basis points.
  • The further fall was prevented by the weekly S1 at 0.7867, which played a role of a springboard.
  • Today the pair is expected to continue to climb to the top even though this endeavour, most probably, will be compromised again by the above 55-hour SMA .
  • But such outcome would only additionally confirm an existence of a little descending channel that formed couple of days ago.
Aug 10
Trade closed: target reached: AUD/USD finds support near 0.7867

As it was expected, the surge of the Aussie once again was stopped by the 55-hour SMA near 0.7901. After encountering this resistance level the pair could have slipped to the bottom trend-line of a recently formed descending channel, but it failed to break through the weekly S1 at 0.7867.

Such outcome points out on existence of a minor descending triangle, which might be broken already by the end of the day. If this assumption is correct, the pair should leave this pattern in the downward direction. That would be in line not only with the technical theory, but also with the market sentiment, which remains 60% bearish.

The spike to the top is unlikely even with the assistance from the recent US data release, as the northern side is reliably secured by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.


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