The last time I posted on this pair, I warned against selling. I posted that warning because I saw so many posters telling people to sell on structure or whatever. I saw something different happening according to my analysis and it wasn't to sell! Here's that chart from that post:
Now this update is a small part of my latest analysis on this pair that I issued to my members in which I have warned that we MAY have a MAJOR trend change in the works (not confirmed yet!) and what to look for to indicate that could be the case. I am releasing that complete analysis to my members tonight so actually I am posting this here even before they get it! Why? I just feel its needed since I KNOW so many of you are just ITCHING to sell this thing thinking that its WAY OVERBOUGHT! Is it overbought? Technically it is. But SO WHAT? How do you know its overbought? Because your indicators (like my RSI below which I DON'T use to determine an oversold/overbought condition!) are pegged to the top? I'm here to tell you DO NOT RELY solely on that indication to take a SELL! I don't know how many examples I can give you where various overbought indicators remain pegged to the top for a long time!
Ok, so that's my lesson on overbought/oversold indicators!
Here on this chart I am showing you is what has happened since my last post. Prices have zoomed up and broken the previous MAJOR DT TL. Although I was expecting it to retrace up towards that MAJOR DT TL as shown in my previous post, it was unexpected that it would retrace so strongly but it did. That caused me to reassess what the heck was happening and as a result, it is now my opinion that we could be looking at a MAJOR trend change to BULLISH. That DOES NOT mean I am suggesting to BUY right now! But if prices do go as I see it should, then it will go a long ways to confirming the trend change. For now, IMO, it is still NOT finished with the current move up. Still has a little more to go.
A pattern to watch to form here is the C&H pattern. If that handle forms, that will signal a trend change to BULLISH.
I am STILL SHORT on this pair from my trade from Nov 9th but I will be watching the PA as it falls again and seeing if and where I'll take profits.
Based on Market Profile (volumes) and Price Action there is very strong swing support at 0.7246. There was about 2 week rotation where the big players accumulated their long trades and then moved the price agressively higher. You Can see this strong trading activity even on yearly volume profile!
If the price comes back to 0.7246 I think that the agressive buyers will come again and push the price higher once more.
Here is my analysis:
Victor.Y.F
⋅
Thank you EverythingForex! I have to say, you're good at trading. Waiting for the retest of critical zone. Also Renminbi's hiking is on green lights in 2017.
taksistalo
⋅
Thanks for sharing, great chart. Mine signaling for completion of Cypher any time now =)))) Will try to go short if all good
dizzybeez
⋅
I shorted near the top of this week... seeing where it goes. A target would be nice 73127.. definately keeping an eye on this one. What do you think about the long term (multi-year) bearish trend? Has the price action broken that yet?
chehab
⋅
Hi-- With ref to EW structure, Wave 3 is always the Longest wave--Regards--END
@chehab, you are not right. It can't be the shortest but wave 1 or 5 could be longer
chehab
⋅
@PaQu, Hi--Thank u for replying
Allow me to insist that : Wave 3 is always the Longest wave (Already mentioned here above)
i.e Wave 1 is smaller than 3 , also Wave 5 is smaller than 3 too
-----------------------
In case u dont agree, pls send me the theory principle of EW in order to correct my knowledge
Happy to hear more from u--regards
PaQu
⋅
@chehab, What in case of extensions? All of motive waves (1,3,5) could be extended. The extended wave is the longest. Usually the 3rd wave is extended but 1 or 5 might be as well - in such scenario the 3rd wave is not the longest. You can find this information on the internet.
If the price comes back to 0.7246 I think that the agressive buyers will come again and push the price higher once more.
Here is my analysis: