Months ago I wrote about my minimum target for AUDUSD to be 0.81. However the question is how we get there. (and likely even higher). There are several scenario's I'm looking at for next weeks trading which are based on the following set-up: 1hr 15min This pair looks ready for a reversal shown in the charts above. First of all it looks ready but as I showed on the 15min timeframe it might take out the previous high once more although I don't favor that. IF we move higher by means of a new bullish impulse I have to let it go for now so I'm only looking for a sell opportunity until structure tells otherwise.
The following scenario's are what I'm looking at once we see the sell trade present itself: daily tf scenario 1; 1-2 wave count before impulsive wave 3 takes over
daily tf scenario 2; triangle scenario for wave 'B' which in this case will shift to the right
daily tf scenario 3: price is still going to take out the low of wave A before reversing bullish
The last scenario will mean that in terms of Elliott Wave Principle the wavecount will change in a W-X-Y count. I don't want to confuse traders so let's keep in simple in terms of ABC patterns for short term trading.
Conclusion: I will be looking for a bearish reversal for AUDUSD, once I see the trigger to short I will manage my position by keeping in mind the 3 scenario's I just described. If we see for example a flag pattern unfold we know that scenario 1 or 2 is more likely than 3. If we see a sharp reversal we know that most likely scenario 1 or 3 are more likely.
Follow me for updates because I will update this pair on a daily basis
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Nothing confirmed yet but we are getting close... I'm posting conservative approach here on tradingview. Hope everyone understands.
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watch for flags if not in the trade yet. But keep an open mind, we are still dealing with several possible scenario's on the higher time frames. sell: buy:
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We saw the flag and I'm in the short. Let's see whether this is the continuation of the move lower. Once the move confirms we can focus on what structure is the most likely.
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two scenario's I'm looking for:
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johnm600
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Hi Tim, I'm wondering if you still think we are in wave 4 starting Jan 16 and have reached C yet. Or if your long term count has changed into what ?
Cheers
John
TimStuyts
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@johnm600, hi I would recommend to check out my youtube channel and website for updates. link is in the bio or just look for Tim Stuyts. I'm not allowed to share links because I do not have a paid membership.
Ranothil
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Thanks for this valuable insight; looking forward to the updates. I am already short the metals; so lets see how things go.
Mr-Iaco
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Good observation about the possible scenarios, I agree with you!
Cheers
John