Updating this trade, now that prices have climbed +139 pips, there is a cup & handle pattern that is forming and prices have now just about reached up to the B point line which is also a relatively strong resistance zone as well. The top of the cup & handle also meets at this point. Usually, with cup & handle patterns, the handle will complete around the 38.2% retrace of the previous trend. If you notice, the 38.2% is almost EXACTLY at the 70 cents level.
What I am expecting is that prices will now retrace back down to the 70 cents level and then bounce from there to resume the uptrend.
MY TRADE PLAN I am now taking 50% of my open LONG positions off and banking some profits while letting the other 50% ride just in case this cup & handle fails and prices continue to rise. I am FULLY expecting that prices will continue to go up in this pair to complete the patterns and reach the top of the trading channel again. So by taking some profits off now allows me to bank some pips while still shooting for that pattern completion. I have said that the 70 cents level will play and important part in this trade and that I expected that prices would exceed the 70 cents level and then come back down into it and then bounce again confirming bullish price action and further upside. That is EXACTLY what I am expecting to happen here. So if/when prices do drop to the 70 cents level, I will be buying again provided there is bullish price action at that point.
*DISCLAIMER: Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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Well, that just blew through the 0.70 fib level. I would imagine that this disqualifies the cup and handle pattern? Thanks for the posting though. Seems the smart move would have been to short the handle and maybe take the surprise to the downside as well!
EverythingForex
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Yes, the C&H pattern may have failed but that does not change my overall outlook on this pair and the LONG trade I have on this pair. The only reason I posted that C&H was to try to find a good point to re-enter LONG on this pair. Which I may have just found since I have now re-entered LONG again adding to my previous LONG positions. See my latest post on this pair.....
veiledindustries
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shorted the handle and have made profit down to roughly the .50 fib, stop has been moved to there to protect profit, similar trade was also done on the NZDUSD :)
EverythingForex
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Congrats to you! Of course, looking back on it, it's easy to say I should've shorted that handle as well BUT I didn't and it wasn't part of my plan to do so as I am only looking LONG for now. Oh, well! Good job for you though!
We_Are_The_World
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Hi Man, Thank you so much for sharing!! Same idea,waitting!!! i so like you analysis.Well done!!!
EverythingForex
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uhhh....thanks? If my analysis made you some money, then that's GREAT! Glad to help!
peterB
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The cup and handle has completed so now down to 7000 then I will go long target I see as structure top 7200then 7450
EverythingForex
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No. The handle is not completed yet! Be PATIENT! If you are worried you will miss this trade going up, you can just place a BUY order above the last high and catch it going up. But for now, there's still more downside retracement to go before it returns to the uptrend. PATIENCE!
Also, DON'T SELL the retrace! That's not a good thing to do. It's unpredictable as to what it will do. It may NOT go down and may just go sideways. This is a wave 2 so hard to tell what kind of correction it will be. Best to wait and look for opportunity to catch the next wave up. Which is a wave 3!