justatrader

AUDUSD - Post NFP, continue to hold shorts

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
283 7 0
Alright guys... so this NFP was a real test of the nerves. Where do we stand?

Shorts from 0.93882 can cover stops to 0.93157.

What we're looking for... a neat close below 0.9222 (which is the low of previous NFP). Looking at past candles around NFP, it will take a day or two for price to hit the target. We're looking at 0.912 - 0.915.

Next update closer to RBA's meeting.

P.S: Congratulations if you have held on to the shorts. EURAUD             is also proceeding to its retracement target as expected.

PPS: Next week, it should be time to start looking for AUD longs
Professional market analyst with a keen interest on futures. Love keeping an eye on the markets. Currencies, bonds, commodities. Combining technical analysis and the fundamentals. Contact me for more details.
ForceFollower
2 years ago
Ouch! I got hurt. It turned out you were right. The US unemployment data was much better than expected indeed.
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justatrader PRO ForceFollower
2 years ago
Its ok. A losing trade is always better. It teaches you something new!! That said, short positions are still not out of the woods yet. I'm wondering why Euro would turn bullish against the US Dollar so quickly. EURUSD is close to 1.38 level. Also AUDCHF formed a double bottom on H4 (tapped 0.81196 and surged)... Its not validated yet, but just to bear in mind.

USDCHF is also retracing back to the level I'm watching. Something's not right, given that a bullish NFP is seeing a modest USD strength.
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ForceFollower justatrader
2 years ago
Yeah, my long position in AUDCHF hasn't been stopped out yet. I'm also still long AUDJPY, although I expect it to print "nothing-bars" for another couple of days. AUDUSD is still at the bull trend line on a daily TF. Let's see what it does next. But we won't find out anything before the weekend.
As for my loss, admittedly, a very good lesson learnt. I'll have to be more flexible in my expectations and review my strategy, esp. in a week or two, after the dust settles. I knew I'd had a weak link somewhere and it just got broken.
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itaskar ForceFollower
2 years ago
Piotr you put your stoploss always so tight below/above highs/lows? I am still in with another long from 0.9229(buy limit order). There is good 4h MACD divergence now.
+2 Reply
ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
Well, it's just a matter of the strategy one applies consistently. I admit I got stopped out, because my SL (0.9203) was below the low 0.9205, whereas my broker (OANDA) has printed the price of 0.91971 - so I had to be stopped out. However, I also admit that at that very level of 0.9208 there's another line of support (plus the confluence with the daily bull trend line) I find important, so I had a pending buy order down there at 0.9210, so (regardless of the prior trade that lost) I got filled down there and I'm long again, keeping in mind that I actually risk again another failed long position... That's what I don't like about it. Should it really fail, I will feel miserably...
+1 Reply
justatrader PRO ForceFollower
2 years ago
When i'm in doubt regarding one currency, I usually stay aside and focus on another pair. I know it can get really addictive especially if a trade goes wrong and one that you have been in and monitoring for a while.
+1 Reply
Seems likely that a retracement is coming its way. Strange that its happening on the same day. 0.92 and a weekly level at 0.932. Could it be that the markets are looking through the numbers?? Participating rate dropping to record lows: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-labor-force-participation-rate-falls-sharply-in-april-2014-05-02

Time to hedge the positions and tread carefully.
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