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Short

$AUD Signals Limited Retrace, Then Continued Bear | #Forex $USD

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
964 17 10
Friends,

Predictive/Forecasting Model indicated a probable limited retracement to:

- TG-Hi = 0.90287 - 24 SEP 2014

If and once reached, lower targets would come next per same Model, namely:

1 - TG-1 = 0.87038 - 24 SEP 2014

and

2 - TG-Lo = 0.85516 - 24 SEP 2014.


At the point, wave count remains probable at points 1 and 2. A reversal at current level would confirm completion of 3rd wave. As indicated above, TG-Hi @ 0.90287 represents a qualitative target generated by the model, but would also fall in line with a potential Wave-4 - Expect a 3-wave internal development to unfold if this retracement were occurred. Finally, from that loftier level, a 5-wave impulse would complete this motive - All eyes should be on the current price action, as it would define either a corrective move or a possible extension of current impulse leg in Wave-3.


OVERALL:

Chart favors bears. An interim correction is signaled my predictive/forecasting model, given the targets defined above. Look for $Gold as well for correlated moves.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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PS: This $AUDUSD pair will be added to the daily technical discussions going on in TradingView.com's "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chat room, here: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO - Currently being discussed are:

- $AUDNZD
- $XAUUSD
- $EURUSD
- $NZDUSD
- $GBPJPY
- $CADJPY
- $DAX

David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
thanks for this post
+1 Reply
VelsonChew
2 years ago
May I know where should be the stop loss? Thanks.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO VelsonChew
2 years ago
Hello @devil.kissu - This is a trading decision which I let experienced traders define on their own, based on their pre-defined risk tolerance and risk management - David
Reply
25 SEP 2014 - Update:

From "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" Chat Room
- Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO
--------------
$AUDUSD - Daily:


snapshot



Seeking support @ 0.87720.

Failure would open floor to "TG-1 = 0.87038 - 24 SEP 2014" .

David Alcindor
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Reply
VelsonChew 4xForecaster
2 years ago
May I know this analysis show we should market sell and target for TG-1 instant of limit sell at TG-Hi ? Thanks
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO VelsonChew
2 years ago
@devil.kissu - The targets that are offered predict future R/S levels if named with a number (quantitative target, or "Quant-Target"), and reversals if named with a high or low designation (qualitative targets, or "Qual-Target").

The analyses offered should not be relied upon, as I am not a licensed financial adviser, nor do I hold any sort of license that gives me any authority to offer trading advice. I am an independent prop trader sharing ideas and results of a proprietary predictive/forecasting model.

If you seek entry/exit/stop-loss information, I suggest that you turn to these services.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
07 OCT 2014 - Update:

From "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chat room -
------------------
$AUDUSD - Daily:

TG-Lo = 0.85516 - 24 SEP 2014 remains unanswered.

Considering the tight correlation that exists between gold classes and this $AUD, I would look at $XAUUSD carefully for instance and see whether an underlying pattern is not heralding an imminent upswing.

As this bearish impulse is developing, points 3, 4 and 5 will remain ghosted and unplotted.

David Alcindor
------------------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
18 OCT 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------$AUDUSD remains open to TG-Lo = 0.85516 as bears remain in force:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $AUD $USD #forex #RBA
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
07 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDUSD hit target at 0.85516; Reversal potential pending:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $AUD $USD $Gold #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor



===================================

Visual Recap:

$AUDUSD - 24 SEP 2014:
snapshot



$AUDUSD - 25 SEP 2014:
snapshot



$AUDUSD - 07 OCT 2014:
snapshot



$AUDUSD - 18 OCT 2014:
snapshot



$AUDUSD - 07 NOV 2014:
snapshot




David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David AUDUSD is nicely forming WW pattern confirming your TG-Hi target .
AUDUSD Wolf Wave Pattern

kmk.msp
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kmk.msp
2 years ago
Hello @kmk.msp - Yes, I posted this a few days ago in here I believe. Point-5 usually needs to touch its 1-3 Line, but a 5-prime or 5-second do not have to occur. The pattern most often completes a 5-prime (I woulD estimated empirically about 60% of the time. Again: Empirically speaking), whereas the 5-second would occur up to/less than 10% of the time, empirically speaking).

Look for weakness in the $USD index ($USDollar) which is the US currency measured against a basket of major currencies. A decline in this $USDollar index will suggest a Forex-wide strengthening of currencies expressed against the $USD.

Instead of the $USDollar index, one could also look at other important pairs where reversal set up could be occurring. Here are a few of them I had posted recently:


$USDJPY - 4-Hour Chart: Here, the $Yen's weakness pushed the $USD to its target @ 188.83. A reversal is very plausible:
snapshot



$USDJPY - Daily Chart: In this wider chart, a target was defined near 116.xx, falling short of a 5-second point validation:
snapshot



$USDollar - Weekly Chart: Here, the Index rallied, but surpassed a 11218 target, underlining the strength of the $USDollar, which is most likely animated via the $Yen weakness:
snapshot



It is widely believed that fundamental problems in Europe and EM will force major and secondary markets to devalue their currencies (something I wrote about several months ago in support of the $USD strengthening), which will reflexively prop the $USD up, since most of these markets are expressed in Dollar pairs.

However, I also believe on a pure technical basis that a relief will need to occur on the Dollar side, in the form of a significant correction (i.e.; a "relief rally" in the counter-currencies).

If this were to occur, it could support the WW completion towards the $AUDUSD's 1-4 Take-Profit Line, as well as prop the $BTCUSD as is widely expected at the moment, and lead to a significant devaluation of the $&P-500, as is expressed in its CME's $ES, since it too reached a significant landmark:


$ES - 4-Hour Chart: ES reached a significant 1.618-Fib extension level at 1074.00:
snapshot



David Alcindor


(I will cut/paste this reply in the threads where the Forex pairs are)
D.
Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
yes i have now saw your same WW pattern on AUDUSD in other Aussie thread. thanKS.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kmk.msp
2 years ago
@kmk.msp - There is a caveat in this pattern, which is that it often correlates with the Elliott Wave's Ending Diagonal.

Therefore, Point-1 (RED) in your chart would correspond to Wave-3 termination in Elliott Wave ("EW"), whereas Point-2 (RED) in the chart would correspond to Wave-4 termination in EW.

Therefore, Point-3 would become Point-A of the A-B-C-D-E pattern of an EW's Ending Diagonal (ED).

In such a case, then you would need to move the geometric plot FORWARD in terms of expressing the pattern using the Wolfe Waves Pattern (WW) formula, where Point-3 (RED) becomes Point-1 of the WW, Point-4 (RED) becomes Point-2 of WW, and Point-5 (RED) becomes Point-3 of WW.

This is NOT obligatory, but a detail that COULD very well explain any future distortion in the geometry.

What I would do at this point is to simply keep a ghosted (i.e.: very faint) plot of the alternate geometries, as this market could well trump this expected market geometry.

Of all patterns, the WW is by far the most consistent, and one that I believe could suffice to generate consistent profits. However, it is always best to measure things not on the merit of the pattern itself, but against the context in which it is occurring. Here, the context is that of a probable reversal zone based on EW wave count (third wave bearish impulse led to a zig-zag cluster typical of its ensuing 4th wave), as well as a fundamental context in $AUD in terms of Gold - Following is from MNI news:

==============
"Nov 28, 12:00


GOLD: Spot gold holds around $1167.00/oz late Friday, after trading in a
$1165.66 to $1199.67 range. The precious metal has broke below initial support
near $1175.25, the lows from November 19, with the focus now on lows near $1138,
seen November 5 and beyond that the April 19, 2010 lows near $1123.90. Gold has
been weighed by a variety of factors. First, the tumble in oil prices has had
spillover effects on other commodities, including gold. In addition, gold closed
above $1200 on a few occasions recently (high of $1207.93 posted Nov 21) and
looked as if it might see a topside breakout, with some players trying a
short-term long punt. Now, with the dollar firmer in most cases and gold on the
defensive, these spec accounts have been forced to unwind these positions. There
is event risk also into Sunday's "Save our Swiss gold" referendum, where Swiss
voters will vote on whether the SNB should be forced to hold 20% of its reserve
in gold. This week's Economist notes that this would involve the SNB's purchase
of about 1500 tons of gold, and the central bank would need to repatriate the
30% of gold held at other central banks. Also the SNB would not be able to sell
gold again, the report says."
===============


So, expect some significant $AUD action as the market open. This is a commodity-sensitive pair ($AUDUSD") where the force of its correlation is multiplied by its positive correlation of $AUD relative to Gold, and by its negative correlation of $USD relative to Gold as well.

In terms of strategy, Point-3 (RED) should offer a moderately aggressive entry point once/if price rallies back up to its level, whereas partial orders at 1.414-Fib x Point3/4 would project a very aggressive, but low-exposure early LONG entry, along the 2-4 Line projected off of Point-3, thus defining the approximate locus of Point-5-prime.

Something to think about.

David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
NOTE: Source of quote is MNI.

David Alcindor
Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David. Thinking and understanding your point.
+1 Reply
20 NOV 2014 - FUNDAMENTAL UPDATE:


* * * Major Bank FX Positions in $AUDUSD * * *


L/T: none

M/T:
- Short: 2
- Long: 0

S/T:
- Short:1
- Long: 0


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Good to know! Thanks David.
+1 Reply
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