Predictive/Forecasting Model indicated a probable limited retracement to:
- TG-Hi = 0.90287 - 24 SEP 2014
If and once reached, lower targets would come next per same Model, namely:
1 - TG-1 = 0.87038 - 24 SEP 2014
and
2 - TG-Lo = 0.85516 - 24 SEP 2014.
At the point, wave count remains probable at points 1 and 2. A reversal at current level would confirm completion of 3rd wave. As indicated above, TG-Hi @ 0.90287 represents a qualitative target generated by the model, but would also fall in line with a potential Wave-4 - Expect a 3-wave internal development to unfold if this retracement were occurred. Finally, from that loftier level, a 5-wave impulse would complete this motive - All eyes should be on the current price action, as it would define either a corrective move or a possible extension of current impulse leg in Wave-3.
OVERALL:
Chart favors bears. An interim correction is signaled my predictive/forecasting model, given the targets defined above. Look for GOLD as well for correlated moves.
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
PS: This AUDUSD pair will be added to the daily technical discussions going on in TradingView.com's "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chat room, here: tradingview.com/chat/ - Currently being discussed are:
Considering the tight correlation that exists between gold classes and this AUD, I would look at XAUUSD carefully for instance and see whether an underlying pattern is not heralding an imminent upswing.
As this bearish impulse is developing, points 3, 4 and 5 will remain ghosted and unplotted.
David Alcindor
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David Alcindor
VelsonChew
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May I know where should be the stop loss? Thanks.
4xForecaster
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Hello @Devil.kissu - This is a trading decision which I let experienced traders define on their own, based on their pre-defined risk tolerance and risk management - David
manijeh.kazemi.33
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thanks for this post
4xForecaster
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07 NOV 2014 - Update:
From Twitter:
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AUDUSD hit target at 0.85516; Reversal potential pending:
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
kmk.msp
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David AUDUSD is nicely forming WW pattern confirming your TG-Hi target . tradingview.com/v/J7gfesQq/ kmk.msp
4xForecaster
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Hello @KMK.msp - Yes, I posted this a few days ago in here I believe. Point-5 usually needs to touch its 1-3 Line, but a 5-prime or 5-second do not have to occur. The pattern most often completes a 5-prime (I woulD estimated empirically about 60% of the time. Again: Empirically speaking), whereas the 5-second would occur up to/less than 10% of the time, empirically speaking).
Look for weakness in the USD index (USDOLLAR) which is the US currency measured against a basket of major currencies. A decline in this USDOLLAR index will suggest a Forex-wide strengthening of currencies expressed against the USD.
Instead of the USDOLLAR index, one could also look at other important pairs where reversal set up could be occurring. Here are a few of them I had posted recently:
USDJPY - 4-Hour Chart: Here, the Yen's weakness pushed the USD to its target @ 188.83. A reversal is very plausible:
USDJPY - Daily Chart: In this wider chart, a target was defined near 116.xx, falling short of a 5-second point validation:
USDOLLAR - Weekly Chart: Here, the Index rallied, but surpassed a 11218 target, underlining the strength of the USDOLLAR, which is most likely animated via the Yen weakness:
It is widely believed that fundamental problems in Europe and EM will force major and secondary markets to devalue their currencies (something I wrote about several months ago in support of the USD strengthening), which will reflexively prop the USD up, since most of these markets are expressed in Dollar pairs.
However, I also believe on a pure technical basis that a relief will need to occur on the Dollar side, in the form of a significant correction (i.e.; a "relief rally" in the counter-currencies).
If this were to occur, it could support the WW completion towards the AUDUSD's 1-4 Take-Profit Line, as well as prop the BTCUSD as is widely expected at the moment, and lead to a significant devaluation of the &P-500, as is expressed in its CME's ES, since it too reached a significant landmark:
ES - 4-Hour Chart: ES reached a significant 1.618-Fib extension level at 1074.00:
David Alcindor
(I will cut/paste this reply in the threads where the Forex pairs are)
D.
kmk.msp
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yes i have now saw your same WW pattern on AUDUSD in other Aussie thread. thanKS.
* * * Major Bank FX Positions in AUDUSD * * *
L/T: none
M/T:
- Short: 2
- Long: 0
S/T:
- Short:1
- Long: 0
David Alcindor