Treacherous Conditions & Tamed Expectations - 10/25/2016
One can easily bet that there will be a flash crash in some security in next month or two. Market structure has been damaged or evolved into something where we have to adapt to such dangerous trading conditions which can wipe your equity in seconds if not protected. Besides that, one need to rein the expectations from easy 200 pips to hard fought 20 pips. Based on current conditions, some manageable trades from majors are in AUD/USD and NZD/USD. GBP needs to be excommunicated until it starts behaving and Euro just can't make up its mind.
So far we have been trading AUD/USD and NZD/USD with long bias and that has been working well. For AUD/USD the range between 0.7500 and 0.7800 is very important and must be respected until broken. So don't get carried away by the swings near to either side of the range. We would like it to touch 0.8000 but still we being very cautious and practical in cashing out every 20 pip move. For example, today from 0.7620 to 0.7640, now ( 12:42 PM EST ) it is 0.7645, so 0.7635 to 0.7660 is another range to play from buy side.
Similar case is for NZD/USD where yield advantage will keep it floating. Drop to the good support level must always be bought. Now going back up, the region between 0.7200 - 0.7300 is going to be tough and that's where shorts have advantage. For buying we will look for 0.7000 and 0.6750 to get 50/100 pips.
So far we have been trading AUD/USD and NZD/USD with long bias and that has been working well. For AUD/USD the range between 0.7500 and 0.7800 is very important and must be respected until broken. So don't get carried away by the swings near to either side of the range. We would like it to touch 0.8000 but still we being very cautious and practical in cashing out every 20 pip move. For example, today from 0.7620 to 0.7640, now ( 12:42 PM EST ) it is 0.7645, so 0.7635 to 0.7660 is another range to play from buy side.
Similar case is for NZD/USD where yield advantage will keep it floating. Drop to the good support level must always be bought. Now going back up, the region between 0.7200 - 0.7300 is going to be tough and that's where shorts have advantage. For buying we will look for 0.7000 and 0.6750 to get 50/100 pips.
