Today saw a less than stellar prints for Building Permits and Housing Starts out of the US, and although they have not moved the market much themselves they will nevertheless go into the pot for currency strength consideration.
Later on this afternoon we have the FOMC meeting minutes which does have the power to move the market. If the market sees dovish sentiment then this could push AUDUSD up.
Further, we have Australian employment data due out at 02:30GMT which has been performing well over the past few months, and if we continue on trend then this could help AUD's cause.
AUD has been strong on the day, and as this idea goes to print, AUDUSD sees a Bullish engulfing candle on the Daily chart from a major level of structure and a 50% retracement of the previous move up.
Daily Stochastics are oversold and RSI has turned back above 50 and so our preference is to long this pair.
HOWEVER, should we see a more hawkish tone from the FOMC meeting minutes, and/or poor employment data out of Australia then we could see price fail to break out of the channel and continue to fall.
4HR View
1HR View
Later on this afternoon we have the FOMC meeting minutes which does have the power to move the market. If the market sees dovish sentiment then this could push AUDUSD up.
Further, we have Australian employment data due out at 02:30GMT which has been performing well over the past few months, and if we continue on trend then this could help AUD's cause.
AUD has been strong on the day, and as this idea goes to print, AUDUSD sees a Bullish engulfing candle on the Daily chart from a major level of structure and a 50% retracement of the previous move up.
Daily Stochastics are oversold and RSI has turned back above 50 and so our preference is to long this pair.
HOWEVER, should we see a more hawkish tone from the FOMC meeting minutes, and/or poor employment data out of Australia then we could see price fail to break out of the channel and continue to fall.
4HR View
1HR View
I expect some profit to take place overnight which will give us a second entry into this long should we get the positive news that we are looking for out of Australia.
FOMC meeting minutes
Official saw inflation pick up over next couple of years.
Several said inflation risk could be to the downside
Many saw sub 2% inflation for longer than expected.
Many expected B/S to only modestly tighten policy
Many Fed officials swa weak inflation due to idiosyncratic factors
Some officials concerned by weak inflation, argue for patience
Fed split on assessment if inflation expectations well anchored
Fiscal policy uncertainly damping investment
Rising stock prices has eased financial conditions
A fall in longer term inflation expectations would be undesirable.