EM FX and commodities
currencies are fairing pretty well since the start of the year, but market sentiment may change with the coming of the new quarter (market participants may focus more on the US during the second quarter with perhaps a realization that the first quarter slow down was temporary). On a technical basis, I see reason to be cautious on the AUD/USD
as prices hit a long term trendline
near $0.77. Note the more pertinent trendline
further above at around $0.806. If prices remain below $0.77 and start declining this week, we could see a sustainable top put in place with a hidden negative divergence evident in the RSI
. Such a technical set up would suggest a sharp fall in the Aussie exchange rate in April
with perhaps a fall back to the annual lows (or even further) by June.