The Macro Picture 🗺️
AVAX broke down hard in June, collapsing from its $9 range floor into a $5.7 liquidity sweep that dragged RSI into deep oversold and flushed the over-leveraged longs. Buyers stepped in aggressively at the lows and drove a recovery back to $7, but that first push has now cooled into a pullback toward the $6.4 equilibrium. This is the healthy backfill after a capitulation bounce — price is retracing into support rather than making new lows, and the $6 zone is exactly where the structure gets its next test. The macro trend is still repairing, but the sweep-and-reclaim sequence favors buyers over another leg down.
The Setup ⚙️
The Reaction: The $5.7 macro support (solid green) absorbed the June capitulation and launched the recovery. It stacks under the $6 local low to form a high-confluence demand shelf — the line that must hold to keep the reversal intact.
The Accumulation Zone: The $6–$6.4 band is a textbook pocket for staggered, averaging-based entries — price is pulling back into it after the bounce, letting buyers build into the recovery instead of chasing the initial reclaim.
The Ceiling: The $7 local decision (red dashed) capped the first push. A decisive daily close above it reopens the path toward the $9 macro supply band.
The Roadmap: Primary target sits at $7 — the green roadmap points toward a retest of the decision level as buyers defend the accumulation zone. Invalidation: a sustained 1D close below $5.7 would void the recovery and reopen the downtrend to fresh lows.
More setups in profile.
AVAX broke down hard in June, collapsing from its $9 range floor into a $5.7 liquidity sweep that dragged RSI into deep oversold and flushed the over-leveraged longs. Buyers stepped in aggressively at the lows and drove a recovery back to $7, but that first push has now cooled into a pullback toward the $6.4 equilibrium. This is the healthy backfill after a capitulation bounce — price is retracing into support rather than making new lows, and the $6 zone is exactly where the structure gets its next test. The macro trend is still repairing, but the sweep-and-reclaim sequence favors buyers over another leg down.
The Setup ⚙️
The Reaction: The $5.7 macro support (solid green) absorbed the June capitulation and launched the recovery. It stacks under the $6 local low to form a high-confluence demand shelf — the line that must hold to keep the reversal intact.
The Accumulation Zone: The $6–$6.4 band is a textbook pocket for staggered, averaging-based entries — price is pulling back into it after the bounce, letting buyers build into the recovery instead of chasing the initial reclaim.
The Ceiling: The $7 local decision (red dashed) capped the first push. A decisive daily close above it reopens the path toward the $9 macro supply band.
The Roadmap: Primary target sits at $7 — the green roadmap points toward a retest of the decision level as buyers defend the accumulation zone. Invalidation: a sustained 1D close below $5.7 would void the recovery and reopen the downtrend to fresh lows.
More setups in profile.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Stop guessing your settings — backtest & optimize with QuantPilot
🎁 Free to start
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.