$AVAX – ARBITRAGE DUMP DETECTED – READY TO BALANCE?

Sep 23

Traders,

Last time we nailed AVAX from 22.80 → 30 → 35 almost pixel perfect.

Now the setup may be flipping. Let’s break it down with the THETA method:

🔹 Imbalances

• Perps vs Spot: Binance Perps wicked down to $26.83, Spot hasn’t filled it yet → liquidity gap below.
  
• Market Profile: Price swept the 31 Jan weekly high, a “bad high” (too much excess, unstable).
  
• Oscillators: RSI shows bearish divergences on multiple timeframes → momentum fading.
  
• Context: Market is repairing imbalance above to build liquidity, which can later be used to fix the unfinished business below.
  

🔹 Order Flow & AVWAP

• Aggressive buyers stepping in at $34–36 (since CME open).
  
• Price is now trading at the upper band of the HTF AVWAP, a zone that often signals overextension vs volume-weighted positioning.
  
• The unfilled wick imbalance at $26.83 is also the price of the HTF AVWAP itself (blue line) → strong confluence for a revisit.
  
• If downside continues, those aggressive buyers will be trapped, fueling the move lower.
  
• Next key check: At $26.90, we need to watch data + price action to define if AVAX stabilizes there or breaks further.
  

✅ Conclusion

Price is showing signs of distribution at the HTF AVWAP upper band. Liquidity is being absorbed above, and the confluence of the wick imbalance + HTF AVWAP at $26.83 strengthens the case for a downside move.

👉 Key takeaway: Longs chasing into AVWAP extremes = potentially trapped buyers, with the market likely rotating back to $26.90–26.83 before the next decision point.

Sep 24

Note

To look for a Short here, we need to wait for that Single Print at $36.36 to be balanced. Look for a possible wave up towards either $36.36 or $38, and then a close below $36. Your stop will then be the wick/high of that candle. That liquidity needs to be technically taken price can go down!

Sep 25

Note

Price decided to flow down, which was initially expected anyway.