AVAX | ANOTHER DUMP IS LOADING | CHOO CHOOOO

Oct 6, 2025

AVAX looks ready for another potential dump. In my AVAX analysis of August 26 we nailed the entry and exit pixel perfect.

The AVAX analysis of September 11 was also on point.

I believe that we're not setting up for another hard leg down. Lets look at the data to validate our thesis.

• We’re currently in a textbook compression before expansion phase. Price has been moving sideways for days.
• CVD Spot is trending down while price holds flat.
• CVD Stablecoin-Margined Contracts is also trending down.
• CVD Coin-Margined Contracts is trending down even more aggressively.

This tells us that while price is stable, market participants are hitting the bid — selling through the order book. The only reason price hasn’t dropped yet is because passive buyers (limit bids) are absorbing that selling pressure. Once that liquidity weakens or gets pulled, price can easily air pocket lower.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting.

• Open Interest (Stablecoin-Margined) is flat.
• Open Interest (Coin-Margined) is rising steadily.
• At the same time, Coin-Margined CVD continues to drop, and price remains flat inside the range.

Conceptually, this combination is very bearish. Rising OI means new positions are being opened. Falling CVD means those positions are being opened via market sells — in other words, traders are adding shorts. The steady rise in coin-margined OI tells us these are leveraged positions taken directly against the asset, not just speculative stablecoin longs.

This pattern shows that new short exposure is building quietly under the surface, while spot and stablecoin flows fail to show any real buying. It’s the kind of distribution that looks like “accumulation” on the chart — but it’s actually leveraged sellers being absorbed by patient buyers. When those buyers step away, the imbalance resolves sharply to the downside.

In plain English:

Price is holding up because someone keeps catching the falling knife. But the knife is still falling.

Unless Spot CVD turns positive and stablecoin OI starts rising with it (showing real demand returning), this setup points to one thing — another leg down is coming for AVAX.

I'm targeting ZONE 2 and ZONE 3. Check the Order Flow Data here: ibb.co/CKMtHCvF

Trade safe, Nomads!

Oct 6, 2025

Note

PS. I wrote '
I believe that we're not setting up for another hard leg down. Lets look at the data to validate our thesis.'

Obviously I mean that we ARE setting up for a leg down.

Oct 7, 2025

Trade active

Pixel. Perfect.

Oct 7, 2025

Note

We can see an insane amount of Net Shorts being opened on Binance, together with increasing OI.
The highest probability is that this is fresh short exposure entering into weakness, not profit-taking.

Price has just broken down from structure, and the flow shows aggressive short initiation rather than position closing.
As long as these new shorts remain in control and price keeps accepting below the breakout level, the move represents bearish continuation, not a trap.

If price were to reclaim the breakout zone while OI stays elevated, these shorts could become squeeze fuel, but for now, momentum and positioning favor continuation lower.

Beware of a break above though, that will result in an insane short squeeze. So risk must be managed here.

Check the Order Flow data here: ibb.co/4nbCLpLf
Check Aggregated Order Flow here: ibb.co/RGmXF49q

Oct 7, 2025

Note

That was a continuation for sure!

Oct 10, 2025

Note

Target 1 reached: Pixel Perfect Entry, Pixel Perfect Target.