AVAXUSDT — Accumulation Base or Next Leg Down?

On the 1W (Weekly) timeframe, AVAXUSDT remains in a macro downtrend structure since the 2021 peak. The chart clearly shows:

Lower Highs (LH)

Lower Lows (LL)

Repeated distribution at resistance levels


Price has now returned to the historical 10.8 – 8.8 demand zone (yellow block), which previously acted as a strong reaction area multiple times.

This is a critical long-term level.


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Pattern Structure

From a broader perspective, the chart shows:

1. Macro Descending Structure

Every rally fails to create a higher high.

Selling pressure consistently forms new lower highs.


2. Re-Accumulation / Base Attempt

The 10.8 – 8.8 zone previously served as:

A long consolidation area

The base of the early 2023 bullish impulse

A structural retest level


Now price is testing this area again.

This could become:

A major reversal base
OR

The final support before a large breakdown



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Key Levels

Main Weekly Demand Zone:

10.8 – 8.8


Next Supports If Breakdown Occurs:

6.9

4.7

3.9

3.4

2.8


The deeper the breakdown, the stronger the confirmation of macro bear continuation.


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Bullish Scenario

Bullish confirmation requires:

1. Price holding above 8.8


2. Strong weekly close above 10.8


3. Formation of a higher low on daily/weekly timeframe



Potential upside targets:

14 – 16 (minor resistance)

20 – 26 (mid-range resistance)

34+ if strong momentum returns


Best confirmations:

Increasing volume on the bounce

Structure shifting into higher high – higher low


If this plays out, the current zone could become a: Macro accumulation zone


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Bearish Scenario

Bearish continuation activates if:

1. Clean weekly close below 8.8


2. Failed retest (8.8 turns into resistance)


3. Increasing sell volume



Downside targets:

6.9 (minor support)

4.7

3.9

3.4

2.8 (macro extreme support)


If 8.8 breaks with strong impulse, it confirms: Macro bearish continuation cycle

This could open room for an additional 30–60% downside.


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Conclusion

The 10.8 – 8.8 zone is the long-term decision area for AVAX.

Hold = potential major reversal
Breakdown = continuation of the macro bear trend

The upcoming weekly closes are extremely important.

This is not a FOMO zone — this is a reaction observation zone. Watch structure and volume carefully.


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